The Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled to find consistency the past few years, but they at least don't have to worry about the quarterback position with Trevor Lawrence behind center.
The first overall pick in 2021, Lawrence dealt with several obstacles throughout his career but has also shown that he's capable of playing at a high level. He's coming off what's arguably the best year of his career and should be even better next season.
But despite his banner season, an NFL analyst doesn't think that Lawrence would be worth nearly as much as other quarterbacks if he were on the trade block.
The Jaguars would get two first-round picks for Trevor Lawrence in a trade
Bill Barnwell of ESPN assessed the trade value for players on each NFL team whom he believes could fetch a first-round pick or more. He suggests Trevor Lawrence is worth two first-rounders, arguing that he's talented but inconsistent.
"This is a relatively optimistic view of Lawrence, who has fluctuated from potential problem contract to franchise quarterback over the past few years in Jacksonville," Barnwell wrote. "Lawrence was excellent over the final six games of 2025, averaging more than 8 yards per attempt while throwing 15 touchdowns against one pick. But that was also immediately preceded by a three-interception game against the Cardinals."
As Barnwell noted, Lawrence has been inconsistent throughout his career, but context is key. Urban Meyer was his head coach as a rookie, and he was vastly unqualified for the task. Doug Pederson helped No. 16 bounce back from the Meyer debacle but made the crass mistake of delegating his development to right-hand man Press Taylor.
Then, Liam Coen took over in 2025 and managed to get the most out of Lawrence, but the quarterback had trouble adjusting to his scheme at first. Once he got a good hold of it, he took off.
With Coen at the helm, the expectation is that Lawrence should have no trouble building off his impressive 2025 and will at last be discussed like a top-10 quarterback moving forward.
The Jaguars know Trevor Lawrence is worth more than two first round picks
Two first-round picks are nothing to scoff at, but Trevor Lawrence is definitely (or will be) worth way more than that by the end of 2026. For context, rookie signal-caller Fernando Mendoza was valued at three first-rounders even though he's yet to play a down. Jayden Daniels had the same value even though he's coming off an underwhelming season.
This begs the question, how can quarterbacks who have not played or have struggled cost more, but Lawrence doesn't get the same kind of grace? On the other hand, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jordan Love, and other top-tier quarterbacks are definitely worth those three third-rounders because they've proven they can play. And that's the thing, Lawrence has done so as well but not on a consistent basis. What if that changes, though?
Lawrence hasn't been consistent, but he hasn't had continuity or help like some of his peers. If that were to change, and signs point in that direction, what will stop him from being discussed in the same breath as Love or even Burrow?
The truth is that the Jaguars are setting up Lawrence to succeed and are about to reap the rewards. Not via trade, as they wouldn't shop him even if they were offered three or four first-round picks. Instead, the franchise could be entering a period of sustained success with him at quarterback.
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