Catastrophe 1: The Jaguars get caught in the hype and the offense regresses
This seems unlikely but no scenario should ever be ruled, as improbable as it may be. There are many reasons to believe Trevor Lawrence will keep improving in Year 3 and will enter the talk as one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL. Last season, he put on display the talent that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft and he hasn't probably reached his ceiling.
Having more familiarity with Doug Pederson's scheme should also help him. Pederson said that he had to start over with Lawrence after having his rookie season derailed by Urban Meyer's incompetence. So far, Lawrence has shown more command of the system, which has helped him become a more vocal leader.
Also, other players will also be entering their second year under Pederson. Tight end Evan Engram, running back Travis Etienne, wide receiver Christian Kirk and Zay Jones should benefit from the continuity on offense. There's also the Calvin Ridley factor. The former Alabama standout was quickly becoming one of the top receivers in the league before retiring in 2021 and missing the 2022 season for violating the NFL's gambling policy.
Healthy and ready to roll, Ridley could turn the Jaguars' offense into one of the best in the league, so what could possibly stop Lawrence and the Jaguars in 2023? Besides injuries, believing in the hype. The Jaguars have quickly become one of the hottest teams in the NFL but they can't get caught in the hype before they take the field. It's easy to picture themselves winning the division and making a deep playoff run. But they must stay level-headed and if they start to lose games, they must remain focused.
Working in the Jaguars' favor is that Pederson isn't the kind of head coach that will allow his team to get too confident. Similarly, they've built a veteran nucleus that won't let their younger players get too high or too low if they encounter a few challenges along the way.