Jacksonville Jaguars 2017 NFL Draft: A first-round quarterback is ridiculous

The Jacksonville Jaguars are in a make-it-or-break-it year with quarterback Blake Bortles but should wait before drafting a replacement in the first round of the NFL Draft.

There is a case to be made for drafting a quarterback early until a team finally lands a franchise signal caller. At the game’s most important position, it’s important to get it right.

For the Jacksonville Jaguars, entering year four with quarterback Blake Bortles, the case for drafting a quarterback to “get it right” is becoming more and more compelling. While it’s hopeful that Bortles could develop into an Eli Manning-type player, he may end up being no better than someone like Jay Cutler.

That isn’t to say that is necessarily a bad thing. Cutler has been a franchise quarterback and displayed the ability to get his team to the NFC Championship. But a gunslinger rarely turns into someone like Brett Favre or even Eli Manning and can flounder into play more like Cutler. Inconsistencies and mistakes kill teams and it’s rare that the positives outweigh the negatives like those in Favre or Manning’s cases.

Yet, for the Jaguars, it’s tough to find a compelling reason to draft Bortles’ replacement early in the 2017 NFL Draft. If his floor is Cutler-level play, then he’s a starting-caliber NFL quarterback. If his ceiling is Manning or Favre-level, then he’s possibly a Super Bowl contender at some point in his career.

Unfortunately, the Jaguars simply don’t know what they have in Bortles. After an exciting 2015 in which he posted 35 touchdowns, the potential clearly showed. In a disappointing 2016, the Jags saw what may be a dismal future if he can never elevate his play again.

2016 weighs heavy in the minds of analysts and fans alike. That has led to mock drafts, like this one from Pro Football Focus, calling for the Jags to draft the next franchise quarterback in round one. In mocking DeShaun Watson to the Jags, PFF’s Steve Palazzolo writes:

"Bortles was seemingly on the right path in 2015, but a poor 2016 is enough for the Jaguars to look for insurance in Watson, who can throw with accuracy and touch. His best throws are quite impressive, and he’ll make plenty of them, but he’ll also miss his fair share, and he has work to do as far as working through progressions and maneuvering the pocket."

First-round quarterbacks aren’t insurance. First-round quarterbacks are the future. If the Jags are ready to give up on Bortles, then a first-round quarterback should be considered. But there is still uncertainty and the team isn’t there yet.

Further, the choice needs to be based on value. With no quarterback being worth a top-10 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft (according to Mike Mayock, at least), picking a quarterback of the future at fourth overall is a reach.

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Franchise quarterbacks hold that kind of value, where teams are willing to try again and again and again to get it right by reaching on someone who may have the right collection of talent to do it. It can be argued the Jags reached for Bortles at third overall back in 2014 and that’s a fair argument to make, but that doesn’t mean the Jags should repeat the same mistake again in 2017. The Cleveland Browns are a great example of team continually reaching on first-round quarterbacks and repeatedly missing.

The Jacksonville Jaguars cannot afford to be more like the Cleveland Browns.

With one more big year to prove he’s worth it, the Jags would be wise to wait until later to try and land an early-round quarterback. There may be a quarterback worth taking later in the 2017 NFL Draft, but a reach at fourth overall would be a mistake.

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