Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys: Friday Fact or Fiction

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The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently over in London trying to become the official home team of the Brits, and one way to accelerate that process would be a win against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.

Despite what appears to be a non-trivial back injury, the Cowboys are expected to start Tony Romo at quarterback. Having lost 2 games in a row, Jerry Jones and the coaching staff apparently don’t want to risk an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars. It’s a risky move, and it doesn’t necessarily guarantee a victory against what’s been a feisty Jaguars squad. It’s a much more interesting matchup than most people think it is.

With all that in mind, here are my rock solid predictions for this week’s game:

Denard Robinson will run for over 100 yards: FICTION

Denard Robinson failed to crack the 100 yard mark last week (he still had 94, so not bad), and probably the biggest reason why was the loss of Brandon Linder at guard. Linder currently has a (+10.8) overall grade from Pro Football Focus on the season, good enough for 6th amongst all guards in the NFL. He was a big part of Denard’s emergence as the top running back on the team, and his loss will have an impact on the rushing attack. The Cowboys don’t really have too many guys on the defensive line that worry you, but the Jaguars are going to have to deal with a significant downgrade at the right guard position.

DeMarco Murray will have 100+yards rushing: FICTION

DeMarco Murray has been the most productive running back in the NFL through the first 9 weeks, and it really hasn’t been that close. Murray currently leads the NFL in rushing yards with 1133 – that’s 311 more than Arian Foster in second place. Murray was finally held to less than 100 yards on the ground last week against the Arizona Cardinals, and that should continue against the Jaguars. Before giving up a 60 yard run to Jeremy Hill last week, the Jaguars were doing a good job of containing the run against the Cincinnati Bengals. The defensive line has done a good job of holding up in the run for the most part this season, and it’s really been breakdowns in the second and third level that have gashed the defense. If the linebackers and safeties can get on the same page, Murray shouldn’t find too many openings for big gains.

Blake Bortles will throw for 3+ touchdowns: FACT

The Cowboys have given up 14 touchdowns through the air this season (tied for 14th most in the NFL), including 3 last week to Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys defense shocked the world over the first several weeks by being fairly competent, but injuries and lack of talent are starting to catch up to them. The Cowboys don’t have the horses on defense to keep up with most offenses in NFL, so Blake Bortles should be able to take advantage and have a big week. If the Jaguars open up the playbook like they did in the second half of last week’s game, expect a couple of long touchdowns.

My reasoning for picking the Jaguars to win pretty much every week has been fairly consistent – this team is close. The defense is playing well, the running game is finally getting going, and the young receivers are starting to flash. The missing piece right now is consistent, efficient production out of the passing game. Bortles has to have a big week eventually, so – as I’ve said over the last few games – why not this week?

PREDICTION: Jaguars 31 – Cowboys 27

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