Ryan Tannehill has been an excellent quarterback the last three weeks. He has completed 72.3 percent of his passes for 799 yards with six touchdowns, which makes him one of the best quarterbacks over the past three weeks. But, much like Brian Hoyer last week, he will hit a brick wall against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Ryan Tannehill is hot, but the Jaguars will find a way to cool him down.
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The best indicator of Tannehill’s inevitably bad game against the Jaguars is his inability to put together solid week after solid week. Yes, the last three weeks have been good. Yet his six touchdowns are paired with three interceptions and it’s only a matter of time before he reverts back to his usual form and posts numbers similar to the first three weeks of the season, where he four touchdowns to two picks, including a disastrous week three where he completed less than 50% of his passes.
Elliot Harrison has it right when he states that “Tannehill has never posted back-to-back games with a passer rating of 100 or better.” Last week he had a rating of 123.6 against the Chicago Bears in a dominant performance (78% complete, 277 yards, two touchdowns) after an 83.3 rating the week before against the Green Bay Packers which followed a 109.3 rating against the Oakland Raiders in week four. Before that Raiders game he hadn’t had a passer rating above 80. Tannehill is due to come back to earth, back below a 100 passer rating, and the Jaguars’ improved defense is the perfect unit to force that return to form.
The Jaguars are playing very well on defense the last few weeks. They have been allowing just 278 yards per game and limiting opponents to a meager 22.6% success rate on third and fourth down. The defense has come into its own and is bonding around strong play along the defensive line. While the Dolphins put together more first downs than only five other teams in the NFL, they will find it much harder to move the chains against the Jaguars, who have allowed less than 15 first downs in each of the past two weeks.
Tannehill has the physical tools to be a successful starter in the NFL and he has made some strides over the past few weeks, but he isn’t at a point right now where he can consistently decimate opposing defenses. When defenses like the Jaguars are able to put up a stand against good quarterbacks (as Brian Hoyer found out last week) they have been able to force offenses to play the way they want them to play.
Ryan Tannehill will find it difficult to move the ball against the Jaguars.