![Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks to pass during an NFL training camp session at the Miller Electric Center, Tuesday, July 29, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_0,w_6000,h_3375/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/55/01k1hp5cjkqj957e85w5.jpg "Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks to pass during an NFL training camp session at the Miller Electric Center, Tuesday, July 29, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]")
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has become somewhat of a polarizing figure since the Jacksonville Jaguars drafted him first overall in 2021. This is understandable when you take into account that the former Clemson Tiger has shown that he's capable of playing at a high level. However, he hasn't done it consistently enough to be dubbed a top-10 passer in the NFL year in and year out.
But despite Lawrence's inconsistent play, he's still highly talented, which is why Bill Barnell of ESPN got it right when they assigned him a trade value.
Barnell took a look at every team's best player and assigned a trade value to each one of them. When it comes to the Jags, he argues that three of their players are worth two first-round selections: Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., and Travis Hunter. Here's the skinny.
"The Jags just sent two first-round picks to the Browns to move up and acquire Hunter in April," Barnwell wrote. "Some of the bloom is off the Lawrence rose in Jacksonville after he went 2-8 as the starter last season, but he isn't far removed from being excellent between the second half of 2022 and the start of 2023, and he's still about to be only 26 years old."
Barnwell continued, "There are too many teams that had him as a truly elite college prospect to think there wouldn't be a significant market for his services, even if the results haven't necessarily been what the Jags and their fans would have hoped."
On the other hand, Barnwell thinks pass rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker could each fetch a first-round pick, arguing that both excel at bringing the heat.
Related: The Jaguars might have dodged a bullet when they lost the Ben Johnson sweepstakes
Is Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence worth 2 first-round draft picks?
Probably, if not more. Teams are willing to pay a premium for quarterbacks, simply because the demand outweighs the supply. For proof, Marcus Mariota signed an $8 million deal with the Washington Commanders despite the fact that he'll be the backup behind Jayden Daniel. That's more than several starting running backs.
But if you're talking about just trade value, the Cleveland Browns gave up three first-rounders for Deshaun Watson in 2022. Back in the late 2000s, the Denver Broncos got two first-round picks from the Chicago Bears in exchange for Jay Cutler. Early in the 2010s, the then-Oakland Raiders didn't hesitate to part ways with first and second-round selections in exchange for Carson Palmer. You would agree that all three were capable passers but none of them were elite when they got traded.
This is a long-winded way to say that if a quarterback in desperate need of help at quarterback wouldn't hesitate to give the Jaguars a pair of first-round selections. Would they listen to offers? That's a whole other issue.
You could make the case that two first-round picks for Lawrence are too steep a price, but the truth is that analysts who suggest he's only worth one simply want the team on the other side of the deal to make a lowball offer that would vastly benefit them.
Heck, who wouldn't want to land a franchise QB for a second-round pick?
Related: A strong showing at training camp gets Jaguars veteran closer to breakout season
Why the Jaguars wouldn't trade Trvor Lawrence (at least for the moment)
The Jaguars have allocated too many resources to Trevor Lawrence and are still waiting for a consistent return on their investment. For that reason, it's hard to see them moving on from him. Sure, the fifth-year quarterback has failed to build consistency and has struggled to stay healthy the past two years. But many of his issues stem from the organization's support, or lack thereof, in past years.
For instance, No. 16's arsenal of weapons has routinely left much to be desired. He's had Evan Engram or Christian Kirk at times, but didn't have a true bona fide No. 1 until Jacksonville drafted Brian Thomas Jr., and just when they were strengthening their rapport, Lawrence suffered a season-ending injury. Circling back to his supporting cast, his protection has always been deficient.
No Jaguars offensive lineman has made the Pro Bowl since Lawrence landed in Duval, and his underwhelming protection has disrupted his timing and decision-making. The coaching hasn't been much better.
Lawrence and the rest of the team underperformed the past two years because former head coach Liam Coen wasn't actively involved with the team, choosing instead to delegate tasks to his coordinators. Not surprisingly, he got the boot after delivering subpar results. The silver lining is that the new regime is trying to change course.
The Jags hired Liam Coen to replace Pederson, and he's so far done a great job of steering the ship in the right direction, putting a renewed emphasis on execution and physicality. Similarly, he has taken on an active role to coach the team, something his predecessor failed to do.
On the personnel side of things, general manager James Gladstone has made a strong effort to replenish the roster with talent and depth without having to break the bank.
With all the changes the Jaguars have made, Trevor Lawrence is poised to bounce back in 2025. And if he does, he'll be worth more than just two first-round picks.