PFF's bold prediction for the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence is realistically attainable

The Jacksonville Jaguars are flying under the radar ahead of the 2024 NFL season and rightly so. They were seen as a playoff contender last year but ultimately came crashing down. One reason they'll have a chance to bounce back is the presence of Trevor Lawrence. The fourth-year quarterback is at last healthy after dealing with several ailments last year.

With a much better supporting cast around him, Lawrence is poised to have a breakout season. This has led Trevor Sikkema of Pro Football Focus to think he'll set a new personal best in one passing category.

Sikkema drew up one bold prediction for each NFL team and projects Steezy Trev to throw for over 4,500 passing yards, noting that he's got new weapons and his yards per attempt have increased the past two seasons.

"Lawrence has thrown for just over 4,500 passing yards in each of the past two seasons. In each of his three years in the NFL, his yards per attempt have gone up, and 2024 is now poised to be his most prolific passing season yet. Last year on passes of 20 or more yards, the Jaguars ranked eighth in total attempts (79), eighth in completion percentage (49.4%), fifth in total yards (1,096) and first in big-time throws (31). Throwing deep is what they wanted to do, and now they have Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to launch it to."

For the sake of clarity, Lawrence has never crossed the 4,500-yard mark in his career. He logged 4,016 in 2023 and 4,114 the year prior. Maybe it was a typo. Regardless of the reason, Sikkemma is right when he says that the former Clemson Tiger has made progress the past two years. On the other hand, he's also run into a few speed bumps along the way.

After Urban Meyer mishandled his development, Lawrence was expected to make strides under head coach Doug Pederson in 2022. He did, but also made a few mistakes, especially early in the season. His costly turnovers against the New York Giants and the Denver Broncos are among the ones that stood out. Fortunately for the Jags, No. 16 put it all together and led the way during their playoff run.

Building to spurn momentum, Lawrence got off to a strong start to 2023 despite the subpar protection he got from the offensive line. Eventually, though, he got hurt, and Jacksonville faltered. Looking back, his injury exposed the team's lack of depth and talent. Had the roster been in better shape, the Jags might've found a way to stay afloat last year.

The good now is that Trevor Lawrence is now healthy, and the Jaguars made upgrades to both sides of the ball that should take some pressure off his shoulders in 2024.

Trevor Lawrence will clear 4,500 yards for the Jaguars in 2024

Being a 4,000-passer doesn't have the same luster it did 40 or even 20 years ago. With rules now favoring offenses, teams lean on quarterbacks to win games. Add the fact that many pad their starts in garbage time (Blake Bortles) and throwing for 4,500 yards is a reasonable achievement. Trevor Lawrence should clear the bar in 2024.

Leaving aside that his healthy, Lawrence will now be throwing the ball to Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. Both of them have deep-threat capabilities, and the fourth-year quarterback shouldn't hesitate to target them next season.

In fact, Lawrence's connection with Thomas was on full display during the preseason, with him hauling in passes of 41 and 38 yards. Moreover, the Jaguars will have a renewed emphasis on running the football. This will force opposing defenses to bring extra players into the box, which will, in turn, present more favorable matchups for the Knoxville, Tennessee native.

This is to say that the pieces are there for Trevor Lawrence to have over 4,500 yards in 2024. However, he and the Jaguars will be more focused on racking up wins.

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