3 reasons the Jacksonville Jaguars will seize the AFC South in 2024

A season on from being the darlings of the AFC South, few are picking the Jacksonville Jaguars to reclaim the division crown in 2023. It wasn’t the busiest offseason for the club in terms of transactions, but some excellent new additions could improve this team in 2024. Currently, DraftKings has the Jags at +250 to win this division, +2,500 to capture the conference, and their Super Bowl odds are currently at +5,000.

This season, the AFC South may be the most competitive in years. While the Houston Texans are at the top of the pecking order, there’s a case to be made that the Jags and the Indianapolis Colts could wind up in first place by the end of the regular season if certain things go their way.

The Tennessee Titans, meanwhile, are being pegged as bottom-feeders without Derrick Henry to rely on, but with a new coach who a solid offensive resume in Brian Callahan, they may be tougher than many may think.

The Jaguars have looked great in preseason, just like a year ago, and we will soon find out how that translates when the real season begins. With that in mind, here are a few reasons why the Jaguars will be crowned AFC South champions in 2024.

The Jaguars' offensive depth and franchise QB Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence may be the featured offensive player on the Jags, but as I’ve mentioned many times, the offense depends on its running game first and foremost.

Each team in this division has a strong No. 1 running back, but as far as I’m concerned, Travis Etienne is the best of the bunch.

Etienne is the only No. 1 running back in the division without a Pro Bowl appearance, but aside from Jonathan Taylor with the Colts, the Jags' No. 1 is the most valuable to his team. In addition, no running back in this division is the complete package as much as Etienne. He can reel off big runs, make guys miss in the open field, and is a sneaky good pass-catcher.

Back in the 2022 Wild Card Round, he proved that he can make a big play when needed. Joe Mixon, Taylor, and Tony Pollard have good resumes, but I don’t believe they excel in as many categories as Etienne, nor do they have the flash of the 2018 national champion.

The blocking in front of Etienne should be much better with Mitch Morse and what appears to be a healthy Cam Robinson. That could also benefit Tank Bigsby heading into his sophomore campaign, as he is likely to be counted on to pick up first downs in short-yardage situations. He will also give Etienne a rest at times. When healthy, like in 2022, the Jag’s offense thrived when Lawrence had time to throw.

If Lawrence has time to throw as I expect, Jags fans could see a lot more big plays down the field from this offense. Gabe Davis is a legitimate deep threat, while Brian Thomas Jr. has plenty of upside coming out of college and has plenty of speed and good hands that can be utilized. That’s a lot of verticality that they can use to their advantage.

Christian Kirk’s back healthy, and he’s another dangerous man who can pick up plenty of yards after the catch and has a dependable set of hands. Evan Engram’s NFL career, meanwhile has been reborn in Jacksonville, and though the tight end looks more like a receiver, he made the Pro Bowl in 2023 and next to Kirk is probably Lawrence’s favourite target.

On the other hand, Parker Washington won’t be a go-to guy, but he showed down the stretch last season that he can make a big play when called upon.

Should the former Clemson quarterback get hurt, there’s depth behind him in the form of Mac Jones. Jones has looked splendid in pre-season and seems a lot more comfortable working with a head coach who knows the pressures of being a quarterback in this league.

It’s not like C.J. Beathard was bad in Lawrence’s absence last year, but he cannot make plays like Jones. A talented quarterback with playoff experience in Jones could also benefit Lawrence, whose starting job won't be in jeopardy given his massive contract.

The Jags don’t have the top quarterback or receiver in this division in my opinion, but when you look up and down the offensive roster of all four teams, Jacksonville’s the deepest. That’s among the biggest advantages they have over their AFC South opponents offensively.

In Doug Pederson, we trust

It feels like a long time ago since Doug Pederson guided the Philadelphia Eagles to the Super Bowl in the 2017 season. While he’s not lifted the Lombardi trophy since then, his experience and play-calling ability shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s yet to post a losing season in Duval County and has only had two losing seasons as an NFL head coach (2016 and 2020).

Being from the Andy Reid coaching tree, Pederson has an array of coaching knowledge and consistently puts together razzle-dazzle trick plays that others aren’t prepared for. Not only that, but he’s a terrific players’ coach who’s brought harmony back into the locker room, and even though the end of last season was rough, it’s not as if there’s zero belief in Jacksonville like we saw with so many of his predecessors.

Shane Steichen is a good coach who had the Colts in playoff contention without Anthony Richardson. DeMeco Ryans also showed he could make the leap to head coach in Houston quickly, while Callahan is the biggest head coaching unknown in the AFC South.

Pederson has been to the top of the mountain and experienced the highs and lows that come with being a head coach in this league. The Jags coach knows how to handle problems that those others haven’t faced yet.

That should be another advantage in Jacksonville’s favour.

The Jaguars’ D-line bringing the heat

Aside from Josh Hines-Allen’s monstrous 2023 campaign, setting a single-season club record for sacks (17.5), this team struggled to get to opposing pivots.

Arik Armstead should help, coming from a monstrous defense in San Francisco alongside two studs on the D-line in Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave. Armstead also played under Ryans when the now-Texans boss was the defensive coordinator in San Fran, and he may know some of his tendencies, which could help the Jags.

The 2022 first-overall pick, Travon Walker, had a solid under-the-radar sophomore campaign, registering 10 sacks and recovering a fumble. I see those numbers going up in a Ryan Nielsen defense that’ll repeatedly bring the heat.

Roy Robertson-Harris had three tackles for losses last season, and with Allen’s consistency, Armstead’s experience, and Walker continuing to grow, the former Chicago Bears D-lineman could be a stronger presence at the line of scrimmage.

I’m not even sure Breeland Speaks will make the Jags opening roster, but he’s got a Super Bowl ring with the Kansas City Chiefs and is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in the United States Football League.

There’s more talent on the D-line than many give them credit for, and Nielsen seems like just the guy to unlock their potential.

Final verdict

Recency bias is real in the NFL, and for good reason, as all one can go off heading into a new season is what happened in the previous one. Therefore, it’s no surprise that many aren’t high on Jacksonville and are tipping Houston to win the division again.

Being under the radar, though, may benefit the Jaguars as it did in 2022 and 2017 when no one saw them being that good. Yet, they won the division both times.

The one word that keeps popping up in my brain is depth. C.J. Stroud is the best player in the AFC South at the moment, while Stefon Diggs is probably on paper the top receiver. Based on merit, of course, Taylor may be above Eitenne as the best running back, but overall, I’d still take Etienne.

Still there’s a case that Etienne, Hines-Allen, and Foye Oluokun are the best AFC South players at their position. In addition to that, I don’t think anyone has as much overall quality from top to bottom.

Depth is the thing that propels this team back to the top of the AFC South mountain.