Ah, my fellow doomers. The fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars who love them just as much as anyone else but can still see the cracks that can (or will) stop our beloved franchise from finally winning its first Super Bowl.
Some say we aren't real fans, but I think we're just cursed to be practical realists.
Being the level-headed individuals that we are, us cynics can see before anyone else that the Jags becoming the national media's new darlings is no bueno. As we all know, Liam Coen's methodology as a motivator includes scouring the internet for press clippings calling his players inadequate and saying that, once and for all, market size does matter.
Right now, it feels like everyone's falling in love with Jax. If Coen can't find any negative coverage to light a fire under his roster, the players might feel like they've already arrived - and we can't have that.
So, allow me to do what needs to be done and point to the three things that are preventing the Jaguars from being a contender despite their hot 3-1 start.
The Jaguars' pass defense won't keep getting a pass forever
Joe Burrow threw for over 400 yards last week, which is a huge concern since Jacksonville's tight game against the Cincinnati Bengals didn't have a minute of garbage time.
Going into Week 5, the Jaguars' pass defense is actually the second-worst unit in the league. Fox Sport's stat page for every defense shows that the Jags are allowing 280.2 passing yards per game. To put that into perspective, 280 yards would be enough for Cam Ward to have his best game of the season.
Oh dear.
You know, the lack of a real pass rush isn't helping either
Smarter men than me can deduce that a team allowing decent days through the air every game probably isn't getting to the other team's quarterback that often.
ESPN's database (just to keep things diverse around here) shows that Jacksonville's defense has only gotten 10 sacks this season. Of those 10 sacks, Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker have combined for three of them.
In a perfect world, this duo would be carrying the load themselves, as the Jags are already in their championship window. That means the AFC contenders don't have the cap space needed to go out and get a proven pass rusher by the trade deadline.
Hopefully, BJ Green II can come back and give Anthony Campanile the consistent disruption his defense needs to truly challenge the Seattle Seahawks for the defensive crown. The film is out on what Coach Camp likes to do, and a ton of coaches across the sport are being paid to exploit Jacksonville's inability to rush the passer.
Pro football's a physical game, but the Jaguars' injury report is already piling up in a hurry
Seeing that James Gladstone has already been forced to sign two new corners, there's a chance that Jacksonville won't have the horses needed to run a championship race at the end of the year.
The phrase "next man up" sounds good (when it isn't your team), but it feels like an absolute disaster when you have to say it in Week 5. Of course, Jacksonville isn't the only franchise lamenting over the diminished state of its roster. In fact, it's actually gotten off pretty well compared to some other teams around the league.
However, it's hard to see how the Jags will stop allowing deep balls and long, clock-churning drives against the best opponents left on its schedule without a healthy secondary. Likewise, there isn't a lot of depth behind Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker; so who's going to rush the passer if they have to miss a game or two?
As far as the offense is concerned, I've already bought enough bubble wrap to cover the Matthews Bridge twice, so I think my contingency plan to prevent Brenton Strange and Bhayshul Tuten from getting hurt during team meetings should work out. If Liam Coen loses access to those two, the Jaguars' new-and-improved running game will disappear in a hurry.
Running the ball as well as they have has kept Jacksonville from testing just how long its bend-but-refuse-to-break red zone defense can hold out. Keeping the starters healthy was always a top priority for Coen and his staff, but the way this season's unfolding insinuates that whoever can field a respectable unit in January will have a phenomenal chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Last time I checked, October is a few months away from then. That means we might have a problem before Jax plays Houston.
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