Before the start of the season, the Jacksonville Jaguars ranked 14th in Super Bowl odds, per Pro Football Reference. They were behind teams like the Houston Texans, the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Green Bay Packers. Seemingly, nobody believed in their ability to continue their success from the back half of the 2025 campaign. Four weeks into the season, the doubters are nowhere to be found.
With head coach Liam Coen leading the way, the Jags have been one of the best teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball, leading to a 3-1 start. Their gritty Week 4 win over the Cincinnati Bengals gave them a clear lead in the AFC South.
And just like that, Jacksonville's chances of making the Super Bowl are looking a whole lot more realistic.
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Jaguars are true Super Bowl contenders after 3-1 start
Trevor Lawrence is finally showing Jaguars fans the full scope of who he can be. His aggressive passing style has made Jacksonville's offense as dangerous as any in the league. The Jaguars currently rank second in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Their running game has been much more efficient than it was last year, ranking third in success rate.
Even after losing Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville's defense hasn't taken a step back. They still haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game this season. As volatile as turnovers tend to be, the Jaguars have continued to force them at a high rate, currently leading the league in turnover differential.
After their hot start, their path to the Super Bowl is becoming obvious. ESPN's Ben Solak laid out his case that the Jags are the top team in the AFC this season. After considering that Jacksonville has been thrown into a middle ground between the conference's top teams and its fringe playoff teams, Solak said, "I know what to do. Stick 'em in the top tier."
This Jaguars team can't lurk in the shadows anymore. Coen's squad is in the spotlight, and every game will be put under the microscope. But they have what it takes to remain on top.
The remaining teams on the Jaguars' schedule have a combined record of 20-32 this season, counting each AFC South opponent twice. Jacksonville should be favored in nearly every matchup. The Jaguars likely won't go 16-1 this year, but if they avoid dropping games to lesser opponents, they have the inside track to postseason home-field advantage.
At that point, they would be in an ideal position to make a run all the way to the Super Bowl.
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