Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports
There is no doubt that when the Jacksonville Jaguars draft 3rd in the 2014 NFL draft that there will be a QB available to them. Teddy Bridgewater. Blake Bortles. Johnny Manziel. One of them will be there. Even the casual Jags fan knows that QB is a position of need. There also could be one of the better pass rushers to come into the league for many years in Jadeveon Clowney also waiting to be picked.
The Jags have needed a DE for about the history of this franchise. Who should the Jags pick? Clowney, whom many feel will make an immediate impact? Or the QB that will hopefully wash the bile from our throats that was Blaine Gabbert. All come with some kind of visible flaw that could prevent them from ever being a true “franchise” player? Is it possible that the prudent move Dave Caldwell could make is trade out of this advantageous spot?
It has become very clear that a general manager that makes the mistake of drafting a QB that fails to hit will pretty much seal their fate along with their job security. For that reason, I am going to tackle this situation with a little science. Some statistical data to honor the tradition of “Those who ignore history are bound (or doomed) to repeat it”. I am going to go over the QB draft picks for the last ten years to get an idea if the mindset that I have had (that a serviceable QB could be drafted AFTER the first round) holds any water. I have made it clear in my “Gumbussy Mock Drafts” that I want Clowney if he is available. Would that be a mistake. Let’s see what recent history indicates. We’ve already gone over 2004 & 2005.
The year is 2006. Overall there were thirteen QBs drafted that year. Here’s the breakdown & stats.
- Round One – Vince Young, Matt Leinart, & Jay Cutler.
Combined Career – 197 games played, 36,966 passing yds, 216 TDs, & 184 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 76.4. They have also combined for one Rookie of the Year & 3 Pro Bowls.
Considering this group included two College National Championship QBs, you would not have thought the best one would be the former QB from Vanderbilt. Young started hot, winning multiple rookie honors and taking the Titans to the playoffs. Then it all went to hell. He is currently out of the league and in dire financial trouble. Leinart hot-tubbed his way out of many starting QB positions and is now a well traveled backup. Cutler has had success at both Denver and now Chicago. He also is one of those players that everybody just doesn’t like and can’t quite narrow down why. Overall this is a very disappointing group.
- Round Two thru Five – Kellen Clemons (2nd), Tarvaris Jackson (2nd), Charlie Whitehurst (3rd), Brodie Croyle (3rd), Brad Smith (4th), Ingle Martin (5th), & Omar Jacobs (5th).
Combined Career – 238 games played, 13,695 passing yds, 66 TDs, & 70 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 55.0. This group has one Super Bowl Championship (backup). This group includes one player with no NFL stats.
Interesting group. Clemons has worked around the league and actually played the most in his career last year for the Rams after Sam Bradford was knocked out for the season. Jackson was brought into Seattle, after losing his starting position with the Vikings, and started the entire 2011 season. An underwhelming year. The next season Matt Flynn was signed to compete for the starting position with Jackson. They both ended up getting beat by 2012 third rounder and eventual 2013 Super Bowl Champion Russell Wilson. Brad Smith has played more NFL games than any of the other QBs in the 2006 draft. The problem is that very few has been at QB. In 112 games played, he has only attempted 10 passes. He’s more of a receiver/returner type. Omar Jacobs has no NFL stats. He did win a 2008 Arena League Football championship with the Florence Phantoms. He was also named the league MVP for that year. One last fact…He was a back-up QB for the Jacksonville Sharks of the Arena Football League from 2010 to 2012.
- Round Six & Seven – Reggie McNeal (6th), Bruce Gradkowski (6th), & D.J. Shockley (7th).
Combined Career – 43 games played, 4057 passing yds, 21 TDs, & 24 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 32.9. This group has achieved no accolades. This group includes one player with no NFL stats. It also includes a player who was drafted as a designated WR so never threw a pass but played 6 games.
Not much to say about this group other than Shockley was an excellent player for the Georgia Bulldogs so his career was obviously mishandled! (GO DAWGS!!!)
Summary of the 2006 QB draft class:
First round selections – Only three taken. None reached their full potential. Cutler still has a chance but he needs to play more consistently and quit pissing everybody off. When your only friend is Brandon Marshall…You have issues to resolve. For an NFL QB, Matt Leinart was a pretty good Directtv spokesman. Vince Young is an example of the modern NFL player who comes into the league after being pampered their whole life. Probably never took one of their own tests, let alone attended classes. Had so much sunshine pumped up their ass on a regular basis that when they come in and get yelled at by a coach, they can’t handle it. When Young was boo’d by Titan fans during a particularly poor played game, he was damn near suicidal. He never recovered. Now he’s out of the league, broke, and has no real discernible skills. Good Luck, Vince.
Rounds two thru seven – UMMM…Nothing to see here folks…MOVE ALONG!!!
The verdict from this third experiment would indicate the Jags should definitely consider taking the QB at number three if they are hoping to find their savior. But they better damn sure perform their due diligence.This draft seemed to be the draft where the seedling of the modern QB was evolving. This QB class added an addtional 35 TDs rushing. A sign of things to come. See ya soon with an analysis of the QB class from 2007.
Undrafted free Agent…Michael McDonald.
If you own a D. J. Shockley jersey, take a pic and send it to Twitter @gumbussy.