Out of the Box: Expect Offensive Stats Dip
By Steve Box
The numbers put up by Blake Bortles and his Jacksonville Jaguars offense in 2015 were beyond surprising. They represented an unforeseen leap, not just in ‘getting better’ but in terms of the sheer volume of the yardage and touchdowns that resulted. Surely with a more mature corps of players and an improved offensive line then these numbers will go up in 2016? It’s time to put a bit of a dampener on this view, but shine some positivity on what that might mean for team success.
Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns had breakout seasons in 2015, setting records and establishing one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL. With a healthy Julius Thomas, the growth of Rashad Greene and Marqise Lee and the emergence of a new tandem in the backfield of 2nd year pro TJ Yeldon and veteran Free Agent Chris Ivory, the Jaguars offense should be even more potent.
…It is reasonable to expect a rise in numbers in the win column, but a reduction in the gaudy passing numbers.
In addition to being more potent, hopes are there that it is more balanced, after game situations and some inconsistency in the run game saw a need to air it out more often. For these reasons, and for reasons on the other side of the ball, it is reasonable to expect a rise in numbers in the win column, but a reduction in the gaudy passing numbers.
Head Coach Gus Bradley has retooled mightily on defense (Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, Dante Fowler etc.), and in addition to challenging the Jaguars offense in practice, they should play a significant role in impacting opposition scoring on gameday, helping a team play with better field position, better game scenarios and ability to time manage. Note the recent injury to Ramsey will be something the whole team watches clearly.
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Allen Robinson’s breakout season (aided by health and better quarterback play) earned him a Pro Bowl berth last year, but it will also likely earn him the attention of secondaries and defensive coordinators. His partner-in-crime Allen Hurns could be the beneficiary of this extra attention, but he himself put up a 100 yard season and a recent nod of approval in the NFL’s Top 100 players. Tight End Julius Thomas has posted modest number since moving from Denver, so look to see more targets his way, along with whichever young wideout cements the #3 role – Greene or Lee.
With a stronger defense and a run game which has a better line in front it and a two-headed monster in the backfield, the Jaguars will rely less on the big play and as fans, buckle up for a year of more wins, but maybe less yards.
And for those long-suffering Jaguars fans (and for the fate of Head Coach Gus Bradley), I think this year, it will be the win-loss record that is the stat that really matters.