What’s Next? Can Blake Bortles Stretch the Field Vertically?

A lot of attention was placed on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ inability to pass the ball more than 10 yards in last week’s game against the Indianapolis Colts. Blake Bortles looked gun-shy either by design or because the rookie has finally had his confidence rattled after leading the league in interceptions.

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Either way, it was apparent that short passes on the flats hoping running backs could make something happen just wasn’t going to cut it.

The passing attack didn’t keep the defense honest, allowing them to stack the box against Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart, limiting the Jaguars’ best offensive weapon and causing the offense to grind to a halt.

I am among many who are calling for Bortles to be let loose, to sink or swim and sling the ball around like we saw when he first took the field. That Bortles was moving the ball better than the Jaguars had seen in years, dictating how the game was played rather than seeming to be reactionary to everything going on around him.

So, can Bortles and the Jaguars stretch the field vertically? Can they alleviate pressure on the running game and keep the defense honest?

The Jaguars definitely have the wide receivers to do that. Allen Hurns, despite his drops and inconsistent play, is a threat to break a game open. He has two 100 yard games on the season and five touchdowns. Cecil Shorts III has proven himself to be a more consistent receiver and a big play threat as well. Marqise Lee flashed some escape-ability and big play potential in the game against the Colts.

There will be drops. There will be mistakes. the receiving corps is incredibly young.

Blake Bortles needs to give them a shot, though.

After Sunday’s game, I was left wondering if Bortles can even make the deep throws. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) “deep passes” signature stat tells us that he can. He’s attempted just 30 passes over 20 yards on the year (last among 28 eligible quarterbacks) and has completed just eight of them (tied for last with Miami’s Ryan Tannehill) for 293 yards (third from last), two touchdowns (tied at 23rd), and four interceptions (tied at third).

The touchdowns and the interceptions are less concerning for me. TD’s are important and it’s great to get them on a deep throw, but right now I’ll settle simply for keeping the defense honest and maybe picking up chunks of yards. His deep interceptions are the same as Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers, putting him in decent company. Rivers, of course, has seven touchdowns to go with his interceptions, though.

The more concerning statistic is Bortles’ last place attempts. Teddy Bridgewater has attempted one more than Bortles and Derek Carr has attempted 15 more deep passes than Bortles. Sure, they’ve all been on the field a different amount of time, but even as a percentage of dropbacks, Bortles lags behind at 9.8% of dropbacks (third to last) compared to Bridgewater’s 11.8% (14th) and Carr’s 11.1% (17th). That really only comes out to a few extra passes of 20 yards or more, but even just a few more deep lobs keeps the defense at bay.

I’d like to see Bortles take a few more shots deep and stretch the field vertically, forcing the defense to be wary. He’s completing 33.3% of his passes that travel 30 yards or more through the air (the same percentage as Tom Brady), which is much better than Carr’s last-place 24.4%. If the Oakland Raiders(!) can keep taking shots down field, then the Jaguars should can too. There’s no reason to be shy about taking deep shots at this point in the season.