Welcome to Jaguars Draft 2014 : To QB or NOT QB : 2009. There is no doubt that when the Jacksonville Jaguars draft 3rd in the 2014 NFL draft that there will be a QB available to them. Teddy Bridgewater. Blake Bortles. Johnny Manziel. One of them will be there. Even the casual Jags fan knows that QB is a position of need. There also could be one of the better pass rushers to come into the league for many years in Jadeveon Clowney also waiting to be picked.
The Jags have needed a DE for about the history of this franchise. Who should the Jags pick? Clowney, whom many feel will make an immediate impact? Or the QB that will hopefully wash the bile from our throats that was Blaine Gabbert. All come with some kind of visible flaw that could prevent them from ever being a true “franchise” player? Is it possible that the prudent move Dave Caldwell could make is trade out of this advantageous spot?
It has become very clear that a general manager that makes the mistake of drafting a QB that fails to hit will pretty much seal their fate along with their job security. For that reason, I am going to tackle this situation with a little science. Some statistical data to honor the tradition of “Those who ignore history are bound (or doomed) to repeat it”. I am going to go over the QB draft picks for the last ten years to get an idea if the mindset that I have had (that a serviceable QB could be drafted AFTER the first round) holds any water. I have made it clear in my “Gumbussy Mock Drafts” that I want Clowney if he is available. Would that be a mistake. Let’s see what recent history indicates. We have already gone over:
The year is 2009. Overall there were thirteen QBs drafted that year. Here’s the breakdown & stats.
Combined Career – 184 games played, 43,273 passing yds, 257 TDs, & 209 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 77.5. They have also combined for two Pro Bowls (both as alternates). Stafford won Comeback Player of the Year from the AP.
All three of these QBs are still in the league, while only Stafford is still a starter. Sanchez, after early success, is looking like a career backup. Freeman is looking like he may soon be a man without a team. These three QBs have proven to be very irresponsible with the ball. Each QB is averaging 14 INTs a year. That’s including a year lost for Stafford per injury and the other two being relegated to backup roles last year. Add to that 66 combined fumbles (and one “Butt-Fumble”) and you have a turnover liability bunch of guys.
Combined Career – 16 games played, 420 passing yds, 3 TDs, & 0 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 61.0. They have also combined for NOTHING.
Wow…What a bunch of misses. Bomar & Davis never register an NFL stat. White finished his career throwing zero for five passing attempts. Most of the stats came from McGee and it appears if he had been more accurate, he might of stuck. Romar is out of football. White & McGee are still playing in the CFL. Davis is still playing in Arena Football.
- Round Six, Seven, & UFA – Tom Brandstater (6th), Mike Teel (6th), Keith Null (6th), Curtis Painter (6th), Brian Hoyer (UFA), & Chase Daniel (UFA)
Combined Career – 87 games played, 3,781 passing yds, 17 TDs, & 29 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 61.7. They have also combined for NOTHING. One registered no NFL Stats.
There was no QB taken in the seventh round. The UFAs played much better than the 6th rounders. All but one of the 6th rounders are out of the league. Both UFA QBs are still in the NFL and one might be a starter next year.
Summary of the 2007 QB draft class:
First round selections – The three QBs selected all eventually became starters in the NFL. None of them have been consistent winners. Stafford has had a great offense, headlined by one of the better WRs in a generation, and still has barely made the playoffs in his tenure. Sanchez went all the way to the Championship game twice, thus making the Jets overlook the fact that they got there with an outstanding running game along with a stifling defense. It wasn’t strong QB play. By the time they figured it out, they were on the hook for multiple years and even more millions of dollars. Sanchez may never start in the NFL again. Freeman’s story is unusual because either defenses figured him out or he just lost his game like Ian Baker-Finch. He went from one of the better young QBs in the league to where he may be out of the NFL within a year.
Rounds two thru seven & UFAs
This was a case where the picks from the 2nd round to the 6th were all mostly failures. Even Curtis Painter, who was given every opportunity to succeed when he took over the Colts while Peyton Manning was out. He was horrible. Truly HORRIBLE!! Yet the QBs that weren’t drafted were easily the best of this crew. Daniels hasn’t really been given a chance to start regularly but when called upon when the starter gets hurt, he’s been money in the bank. As for Hoyer, he had the misfortune (or maybe benefit) to back up Tom Brady. When he was finally given the chance to start in Cleveland, he raised his game, his teammates, and the city. If not for a season ending injury, he would have been the story of the year.
The verdict from this sixth experiment would indicate the Jags should definitely go with the best QB that’s not drafted….I’m kidding! But this draft proves a few things. One, you will probably draft a starting QB in the first round, but you may not find a winner. Second, don’t be afraid to bring in a couple of QBs who weren’t drafted because you may find a diamond in the rough. Finally, they can have years of experience and get paid millions of dollars, but sometimes GMs can be just as dumb as we are. 2009 proves that. We will see how the current GMs do in May.
See ya in 2010!
Still wanting Clowney at #3…Michael McDonald.
If you own a Mark Sanchez tattoo, take a pic, and send it to Twitter @gumbussy! Thanks Mrs. Ryan.