I remember how I felt when Blake Bortles overthrew Dede Westbrook to turn the ball over on downs at the end of the 2017 AFC Championship Game. Nobody could predict the collapse that would happen afterwards, but we all knew that Tom Coughlin and Dave Caldwell had a tough decision to make when it came to the long-term future of Jacksonville's quarterback room.
Fast forward to 2026, and it doesn't look like the Jags have any questions about the quarterback position at all. Since Liam Coen's arrival, Trevor Lawrence has blossomed into one of the league's biggest names and the unquestioned leader of one of the best teams in the entire sport.
But despite being one of the most explosive passers in the NFL, the sixth-year pro is a long way from getting the professional accolades some feel he deserves. Peers like Joe Burrow and Josh Allen tend to take all the shine away from their contemporaries, and a big reason for that is how their workloads are perceived.
But, after Lawrence's recent outing against the Baltimore Ravens, voters around the country might be rethinking how they'll cast their ballots for the MVP Award this winter.
Trevor Lawrence got the job done quick in prime time
Against the Ravens, Lawrence went 16-of-26 for 242 yards and a touchdown. He didn't take a single sack and consistently got the Jaguars into scoring position the entire night.
His numbers didn't pop off the page and make you think of a QB who blew the doors off an organization that still has a chance to win one of the deepest divisions in football. Instead, they read like a game manager who did their job and kept the train on the tracks.
Apparently, my interpretation isn't that far off, as WJAX's Daniel Griffis writes that the Jags' success as a team could be hurting T-Law's chances of winning the highest individual accolade out there.
Griffis explains that "Lawrence has been pulled in the third quarter twice (Browns, Colts) and in the fourth quarter once (Patriots), missing a total of 40:37.
He continues, "Even if he did finish games, the Jags simply aren’t running all that many plays due to their leads. The team ranks 32nd in offensive plays and 32nd in pass attempts in the fourth quarter."
In the modern era, the MVP Award often goes to the signal caller who carries his franchise to the highest peaks over the course of a 17-game odyssey. You don't have to go undefeated, but you do need to be the main reason why your team dominated its competition more often than not.
In Lawrence's case, however, he isn't getting a chance to prove that he's the best player in pro football because everyone else on the team is doing their job at such a high clip. Oddly enough, it's a problem the Jags can't fix if they want to win a Super Bowl.
How does Lawrence get closer to the MVP Award in the 2020s?
Last year, Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford slung the ball all over the field while leading the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams to postseason success. Trevor Lawrence did his thing, too, but he got knocked out in the Wild Card round and lost the chance to continue making his case on nationally televised broadcasts.
This season, Lawrence has picked up where he left off and generated some of the most jaw-dropping stat lines of his career. Jacksonville's defense has gotten most of the franchise's headlines in 2026, but I remember a time when the Jags could field some of the best units ever and still come up short because they didn't trust the guy throwing the ball.
It's easy to vote for the QBs busting the box score every week because their franchises build their entire business models around them, but this year's group of voters (whoever they are) should consider the merits of getting the job done quickly, early, and without a shadow of a doubt.
A non-quarterback hasn't won the AP NFL MVP Award since Adrian Peterson did in 2012. Peterson's Minnesota Vikings went 10-6 that year and lost in the Wild Card round against the Green Bay Packers. Everyone knew he was the offense's engine, suspension, and chassis, so it made perfect sense to give him his props after a 10-win season.
In the 2020s, however, things aren't that simple. Saquon Barkley didn't get credit for being the Philadelphia Eagles' bell cow in 2024 and Derrick Henry never got the love he deserved for being the only reason why That One Franchise was worth a darn.
We all love to act like every QB who won the MVP Award was forced to drag a roster full of bums to a couple of games above .500, but franchises are deeply invested in getting their young gunslingers the weapons and coaching they need to ensure they can put up prolific numbers for years to come.
That means we have to ask ourselves why quarterbacks who are doing what's never been done in their franchises' histories aren't getting more shine than players who are simply playing the most valued position in the sport on the best teams in any given year.
The trend doesn't look like it's changing anytime soon
According to ESPN, Lawrence has the sixth-highest odds (+900) to be named the league's most valuable player. Every other player in front of him is a starting quarterback who's positioned to lead his team to a division title and host a playoff game.
This week's game against the struggling Tennessee Titans should give him a chance to put up the ridiculous counting stats needed to separate himself from the pack. However, putting the boots to a team that's already punting on 2026 might not be enough to impress the award's most critical voters.
While it could be true, we can't even use the small market excuse with this one. Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Green Bay aren't exactly the biggest metros in America. One could argue that the Packers are a legacy franchise that will always curry favor when the time comes, but Cincinnati and Buffalo were bottom feeders before they drafted the walking gold jackets they currently have under center.
For what it's worth, Lawrence's chances of receiving enough MVP votes rose quite a bit after stomping out Baltimore. Despite this, it looks like he won't be able to experience all the glory he deserves until he lands the plane in Los Angeles and gives Duval County its first world championship in a major league.
If he pulls that off and still doesn't get enough love from the national media, I'll be the first in line to call everybody a bunch of haters. Although I don't think No. 16 will care that much if he gets to kiss the Lombardi Trophy and schedule an appointment to get married to the game.
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