Jaguars predictions for 2024 NFL Season: Division Finish, Playoffs, Number of Wins

Things didn't go the way the Jacksonville Jaguars expected last year. Following an impressive turnaround in 2022, they were expected to be legitimate contenders but instead came crumbling under the weight of expectations. While they went 9-7 for the second season in a row, the Jags failed to make the playoffs and finished second in the AFC South behind the Houston Texans

Reclaiming the division won't be easy but Jacksonville has many things going in their favor. For starters, Trevor Lawrence is now healthy after dealing with several ailments last year. Furthermore, the front office made upgrades to post position groups. Last but not least, they dismissed defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and replaced him with Ryan Nielsen, who'll get the most out of his unit.

Despite all the moves the Jaguars made in the offseason, they're still projected to win 8.5 games and finish second in the AFC South in 2024. Then again, they have the pieces to dethrone Houston and win the division title. With this in mind, here's a look at how their season could turn out.

Jaguars division prediction: 1st in the AFC South

The Houston Texans are the media darling and rightly so. Expected to be in rebuilding mode in 2023, they instead stunned the league and managed to advance to the playoffs with a first-time head coach in DeMeco Ryans and a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud.

Following a surprising postseason appearance, the Texans keep reloading in the offseason. Besides signing pass rusher Danielle Hunter, they traded for Stefon Diggs. This is to say that they have enough talent on both sides of the ball to win the division again, but so do the Jaguars.

Before Trevor Lawrence got hurt, Jacksonville was 8-3 and vying for the No. 1 playoff seed in the conference. Had the former Clemson Tiger stayed healthy, they would've snuck into the postseason.

Fast forward to 2024, and Lawrence is healthy. To ensure he's in a position to succeed, the front office beefed up the offensive line and got him a new pair of weapons in Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis. Add the team's renewed emphasis on establishing the run, and Jacksonville has a legitimate shot to win the division.

Granted, the Houston Texans have an ascending quarterback in C.J. Stroud, but the Jaguars will have a legitimate chance to win the division with No. 16 behind center.

Jaguars win prediction for 2024: 11

Sharp Analysis projected the Jaguars to have the 16th easiest schedule in 2024. This is to say that seizing the AFC South won't be a walk in the park but it won't be a Herculean task either. One look at their slate shows that Jacksonville will face a handful of tough opponents but also has several favorable matchups.

In fact, the most challenging part of their schedule will come early. They'll play four playoff teams to start the season: The Miami Dolphins, the Cleveland Browns, the Buffalo Bills, and the Houston Texans. If they manage to go 2-2 in those games, they'll be in a favorable position to finish 11-5.

After all, following that four-game gauntlet to start 2024, the Jaguars will have a somewhat manageable schedule, with teams such as the New England Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts (twice), the Chicago Bears, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Las Vegas Raiders. They should be favored to come out on top in most of these matchups.

Along the way, Jacksonville will play the Green Bay Packers, the Detroit Lions, and the Philadelphia Eagles but Jacksonville has enough talent to win at least two of those games.

You could make the case that winning 11 games is a tall order for the Jaguars coming off a disappointing season. However, they have enough playmakers on both sides of the ball and a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Doug Pederson.

Jaguars playoff prediction: AFC Championship

That's right, you must always shoot for the moon. In the Jaguars' case, the expectation is to win. Owner Shad Khan said as much after he agreed, in partnership with the City of Jacksonville, to spend $1.4 billion on renovations for EverBank Stadium. He then doubled down, telling players and coaches that he wasn't misquoted.

One look at the roster shows why Khan is so high on this Jaguars team, which he calls the most talented ever. Most of the core that reached the divisional round of the playoffs in 2022 is still around: Trevor Lawrence, cornerback Tyson Campbell, tight end Evan Engram, defensive end Josh Hines-Allen, wide receiver Christian Kirk, and running back Travis Etienne.

On top of that, the front office brought in proven veterans with postseason success such as Arik Armstead, slot cornerback Darnell Savage, and center Mitch Morse. If that wasn't enough, several young players such as defensive end Travon Walker, safety Andre Cisco, and running back Tank Bigsby are poised to break out.

Right now, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Houston Texans, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Buffalo Bills are the favorites to win their respective divisions and make the playoffs. Other teams in the mix will be the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Jets, the Cleveland Browns, and the Miami Dolphins. That's some pretty stiff competition, but if the Jaguars can play the way they did to end 2022 and live up to their talent, they'll work their way in and even turn heads.

Don't forget that they showed in 2022 that they were ready for primetime when they mounted a comeback victory to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in the playoffs. They're a better and more experienced team now. Reaching the AFC Championship will be a challenge but is doable.

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