This is the third installment of Fantasy Friday, a series of weekly blogs diving into the fantasy football projections and value assessment for all the Jacksonville Jaguars fantasy-relevant players.
To see last week’s assessment on the Running Backs, you can read that here. Now, onto the wide receivers:
Jaguars notable losses at wide receiver from the 2022 season:
Marvin Jones Jr
While Jaguars fans will remember some of Marvin Jones’ key moments (see Ravens game and Chargers Wild Card games), the average fan may not recognize how much of an impact he had on this offense last year.
Jones had 75 targets, 90 fantasy points, and outscored receivers such as DJ Chark Jr., Michael Gallup, and Allen Robinson. His 13.7% target share was fourth on the team and will need to be replaced this upcoming year.
Jaguars notable additions at wide receiver from the 2022 season:
In 2020 (his last full season), Ridley recorded 90 receptions, 1,374 yards, and 9 touchdowns for the Atlanta Falcons. He finished as the WR4 in standard scoring that year.
After missing the majority of 2021 as well as the full-year suspension of 2022, the Jaguars brought Ridley in to hopefully elevate the receiver room into the conversation as best in the league.
Jaguars wide receiver Fantasy Football projections for 2023
Note, it is generally not a good idea to have too many players from the same team on your roster. While stacking the quarterback and a pass catcher is a common strategy and can be very beneficial, you typically want to avoid having two pass catchers from the same team.
2022 ADP – N/A | 2022 Finish – N/A | 2023 ADP – WR23
Look no further than Ridley’s WR4 finish in 2020 to see the fantasy football (and regular football) potential that Calvin Ridley possesses.
It is rare to find a player who has produced an elite season, is still on their rookie deal, and is being drafted in the 20s at their position. However, these are rare circumstances.
In 2020, Ridley had a 23.6% target share but only had 90 receptions and produced a top-5 season. I think he is more than capable of having another Top-12 receiver and, barring injury, it is hard to imagine Ridley not finishing as a Top-24 WR.
I would certainly take a shot on Ridley at his current ADP, knowing a slow start to the season may be coming due to his time away from live action.
Projection: 85 Receptions, 1,050 Receiving Yards, 7 Receiving TDs – WR16
Recommendation: Yes, please!
2022 ADP – WR42 | 2022 Finish – WR14 | 2023 ADP - WR28
Kirk enjoyed a breakout season in his first year in Jacksonville, leading the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. While Ridley will command a significant portion of this target share, Kirk’s role in the slot should be less affected than it seems on the surface.
However, if Kirk sees his target share drop from 22.8 percent to 19, he would be expected to finish at WR25. If Kirk falls during the draft season as more Ridley hype news comes out, I am willing to take the risk. Otherwise, this price is a little steep for me.
Projections: 70 Receptions, 850 Receiving Yards, 5 Receiving TDs – WR30
Recommendation: Too expensive
2022 ADP – WR85 | 2022 Finish – WR24 | 2023 ADP – WR60
Like Kirk, Zay Jones saw career highs in nearly every statistical category with his first year as a Jaguar, blowing his 2022 ADP out of the water.
While the arrival of Calvin Ridley is expected to have a significant impact on Jones, I think he is being widely undervalued. For reference, the WR60 ADP puts Jones in the 15th round, oftentimes undrafted.
While I would hesitate to start Jones in a normal week, should an injury happen to Ridley, Kirk, or even Evan Engram, Zay Jones is automatically back into a similar position that led to his WR24 finish in 2022. I will be stashing Jones at the end of my bench in as many leagues as I can get him.
Projections: 65 Receptions, 700 Receiving Yards, 4 Receiving TDs – WR45
Recommendation: Absolutely! (If you have space)
Jamal Agnew, Parker Washington, & The Rest
While it can be tempting to overhype players when it comes to OTA’s and training camp, the already-crowded wide receiver room leaves little opportunity for any other receivers to have an impact in fantasy.
Do you have any questions on the data or anything else you would like to see in these articles going forward? Post your comment below or feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @DuvalAndrew904. Otherwise, keep an eye out for next Friday’s breakdown of the Tight End room!