At this point, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that the Jacksonville Jaguars will move on from Doug Pederson in 2025. If they do, they'll be in the market for a new head coach. Whoever ends up getting the job will inherit Trevor Lawrence and one of his most important tasks will be to help the quarterback bounce back.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk recently discussed with colleague Chris Simms whether Lawrence was still the long-term answer at quarterback for the Jags. They both agree that he is, but owner Shad Khan will need to hire someone who can get the most out of his $275 million quarterback.
Simms, for one, doesn't think Lawrence will be a turnoff for candidates that interview for the Jaguars' opening, pointing out that the fourth-year quarterback is more than capable of winning football games.
"I think with a lot of coaches out there that are looking to be a head coach or a guy that could be the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, they're gonna go, 'Hey, that it could be worse.' You mean, I got a 6'5" guy that runs 4.6 and got a laser arm and is pretty damn talented," Simms said. "We've seen enough to go, "Hey, he can carry a team.' And like we've said many times, he had the Chiefs on the ropes of the divisional playoff game. Yeah, he's had to deal with being banged up last year."
Simms continued, "They're not very good this year. And of course, it's not just him. Everybody's bad so, everybody look at that. And I'm not sitting here trying to say Trevor Lawrence is a top-5 quarterback, but I certainly wouldn't be giving up on him, and I certainly wouldn't turn down the Jacksonville job because I'm like, 'Oh, man, they got Trevor Lawrence. I don't want to go to that team.' Nope. I don't want to do it."
On the other hand, Florio notes that releasing or trading Lawrence would be cost-prohibitive, so whoever interviews for the job will be open to working with him.
"This is a contract that the Jaguars are tied to for several more years into the future, maybe even through 2028 before they could get out of it without a massive cap problem, given the guarantees and whatnot," Florio told Simms. "So he's the long-term guy. They need to find a coach who's going to get the most out of the long-term guy, just like Chicago, they want somebody who's gonna get the most out of Caleb Williams."
"The Jaguars need somebody who's gonna get the most out of Trevor Lawrence. That needs to be the guiding principle because he is the guy who is likely to be with the team well into the future. Unless they're willing to deal with what would be a significant cash and cap headache, moving on from Trevor Lawrence if they decide, if the new coach decides to do so," Florio said.
Lawrence was dealing with a shoulder sprain and suffered a concussion in Week 13. He's since been placed on Injury Reserve and once he clears concussion protocol, he'll get surgery on his shoulder.
The first overall pick in the 2021 draft, Lawrence signed a five-year deal worth $275 million in the offseason. He's set to have a cap hit of $17 million in 2025, but if the Jaguars chose to move on from him, it would accelerate a cap hit of $116 million and leave $133 million in dead money.
That would be nearly half of their cap space for next year, so it's simply unrealistic to think that Jacksonville would move on from its franchise quarterback. Here's the full discussion between Florio and Simms.
The Jaguars must find a HC who is willing to untap Trevor Lawrence's potential
Doug Pederson led the Jacksonville Jaguars to the playoffs and an AFC South title in 2022. However, he hasn't done nearly as well the past two seasons, compiling an 11-18 record. That's led to speculation of him getting the boot either at some point this season or next year.
Granted, there's a chance Shad Khan chooses to keep Pederson, but he's better off moving on from him and giving someone else a chance to rebuild the team. For the sake of the argument, let's say the Jaguars do look for a new head coach in 2025, they'll need to make sure he's willing to work with Trevor Lawrence and help him get his career back on track.
Back in 2022, Lawrence was playing like a top-10 quarterback, but injuries, coaching staff decisions, and front-office blunders have hindered his performance the past two years. Bringing Ben Johnson, Wes Phillips, or Liam Coen could certainly help him.
The bottom line is that Trevor Lawrence is part of the team's long-term plan, and whoever wants to coach the Jaguars in 2025 will need to embrace it.