After a revelatory 2025 season under head coach Liam Coen, the Jacksonville Jaguars enter the 2026 campaign with plenty left to prove. However, skeptics don't believe they'll pull it off. The Jags are considered one of the top regression candidates in the NFL, with their 13-4 record from last season setting an impossible standard.
Bill Barnwell of ESPN sees a setback coming. He included Jacksonville in a recent article naming the NFL's top five most likely teams to decline this season.
Barnwell said, "Teams that make massive single-season improvements almost always give some of that success back the following year."
The Jaguars may not hit the 13-win mark again this season, but they have everything they need, including one talented head coach who won't let them get complacent, to take home another AFC South title.
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Jaguars can buck the regression trend hanging over their 2026 season
Barnwell noted Jacksonville's luck in multiple areas as the main evidence for regression. The defense forced turnovers at an unsustainable rate, with its 31 takeaways ranking second in the NFL. Both sides of the ball stayed relatively healthy throughout the year. The Jags walked away with victories in nearly all of their one-score games.
To make matters worse, Coen has lost two of his most impactful players from last season when they let linebacker Devin Lloyd and running back Travis Etienne walk in free agency. Moreover, James Gladstone's 2026 draft class has been under scrutiny non-stop. When you add it all up, it's easy to see why Jacksonville is expected to take a step back in 2026.
But there are plenty of reasons to believe in improvement, too. In its first year under Coen, the offense didn't click until halfway through the season. Wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. took a massive step back in production after his dominant rookie season. If he can be even 80 percent of the player he was in 2024, the Jaguars' offense could reach a new level.
On the other hand, Travis Hunter was a non-factor for a significant portion of the year but is expected to make a massive leap in Year 2. His increased involvement on defense should help balance out a secondary in need of reinforcements.
Even if some of the turnover and injury luck swings back to the middle of the pack, progression in other areas could balance out Jacksonville's losses.
Matching the 13 wins that the Jaguars set in 2025 might be out of the picture. The AFC South as a whole should be more competitive, especially if the Houston Texans can improve their offense. The Indianapolis Colts could also be competitive if Daniel Jones is back at full strength.
Having said that, it's too early to count Jacksonville out in a relatively wide-open AFC. This team has somehow become an underdog after an electric run late last year. Don't be surprised if they continue their dominance.
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