It's been a long time since the Jacksonville Jaguars were 8-3 in 2023. For a stretch, Trevor Lawrence was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. You could have even written Doug Pederson in as a Coach of the Year candidate, and no one would've batted an eye. Everything looked like it was built for Shad Khan to enjoy his long-coveted championship window for years to come.
And then, the collapse happened.
Lawrence's level of play regressed significantly, Press Taylor's play-calling became just as predictable as it was criticized, and Pederson had no answers for his opponents, the media, or the players he was hired to lead to greatness.
Unfortunately, the Jags weren't able to prove that the end of the 2023 season was an aberration. Pederson and his crew followed things up with a 4-13 campaign that eventually led to the former Super Bowl champion being relieved of his duties. At first, it looked like Khan was going to keep Trent Baalke as the franchise's general manager, but the gridiron skies opened up and gave Duval County the biggest break we've seen in a while.
With the house freshly cleaned, Khan was able to convince then-Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen to leave one of the best contract offers ever and take on a job that involved rebuilding a generational prospect who'd been let down twice before.
Ladies and gentlemen, it looks like Coen has done just that.
Trevor Lawrence is playing at a level the Jacksonville Jaguars have never seen before
There were signs that Lawrence was building up to the performances we saw during the Jaguars' playoff run in 2022, but he absolutely erupted when the team played the New York Jets in Week 15. The box score shows that he threw for 330 yards, scrambled for another 51, and scored six total touchdowns. However, NFL history, or the lack thereof, reveals that No. 16's day at the office was much more than a stat-padding affair.
As of now, the Clemson alum is the only player in NFL history throw five TDs, run for a score, and gain 50 rushing yards in the same game. As far as Jaguars history is concerned, Lawrence generated the franchise's best Expected Points Added per dropback score since Mark Brunell dominated the Arizona Cardinals in 2000.
I get it, the Jets aren't having the best season. The Jaguars were leading the AFC South, and New York was preparing to bring in their latest highly-drafted QB prospect to turn their lives around, but what if I told you Lawrence would beat the best team in the AFC on the road?
Trevor Lawrence's play vs. the Broncos established him as a dark horse for the Most Valuable Player award
The Denver Broncos were on an 11-game winning streak heading into their Week 16 contest against the Jaguars. Sean Payton had his legacy big-market team playing balanced ball and knocking down heavyweights from both conferences left and right.
On a similar front, Liam Coen was tasked with changing Jacksonville's culture one step at a time. Instead of relying on a two-way unicorn, an amazing deep threat on the outside, or a dominant defense week-to-week, the rookie head coach leveraged his elite motivational skills to grind out some of the ugliest wins you've ever seen.
Coen's high standard for his squad simultaneously communicated that he believed in his veteran players and demanded that they earn their spots in 2026 and beyond. I'm bringing this up because Trevor Lawrence was not the reason the Jaguars were winning games earlier this season.
That wasn't the case in Denver, though! In a hostile environment, Lawrence found the end zone another four times and was responsible for 28 of the 34 points needed to take down the Broncos in their own house.
The team's running game kept Denver's defense honest, but the 81 yards gained after 27 carries weren't enough to diminish the value of Lawrence's performance. In fact, the former All-American scored Jacksonville's only rushing touchdown.
Jakobi Meyers, who received a lot of credit for the Jaguars' offensive resurgence, was blanketed all day and could only muster four receptions for 45 yards. Again, the context surrounding his pedestrian box score is important, but it's clear Denver wanted T-Law to beat them by his own hand. As the facts of the matter state, Jacksonville's franchise QB answered the bell and announced to the NFL that he was back and ready to lead his teammates to new heights.
Is it too late for Lawrence to launch a real MVP campaign?
Possibly.
Lawrence's late-season emergence is right on time if you prioritize postseason success over individual accolades. and Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford made the MVP race a two-man affair a long time ago. However, Peter Dewey of Sports Illustrated recently reported that Jacksonville's starter under center now has the fourth-highest odds to win the award.
While optimistic, it should also be noted that MVP awards at every level of the sport usually go to the best team's starting quarterback in this era. With the 8-7 Indianapolis Colts and 3-12 Tennessee Titans being the only two games left on the schedule, there's a good chance the Jaguars finish the 2025 regular season with a 13-4 record.
Also, there's a world where Jacksonville enters the playoffs as the AFC's top seed if they get some help. While contributing to Sports Illustrated's coverage of the Jags, John Shipley writes that playoff predictors give the team a 13.6% chance to earn the first-round bye. Double digits at this stage of the game is all we can ask for, and with that kind of success on his resume, Lawrence would have a puncher's chance at making even more history.
Going into the final two weeks of the season, Lawrence and Coen are playing with house money. Only the most dedicated of homers and hot takers had the Jags winning more than 10 games this year. They've already gotten this far, so would Lawrence winning MVP really be that crazy in the end?
To be honest, I don't think so! Let the chips fall where they may.