ESPN deservedly relegates the Jaguars to worst possible playoff tier

Calling the Jacksonville Jaguars underwhelming heading into their Week 11 game against the Detroit Lions is fair. After all, they were expected to bounce back after a disappointing 2023 season but have instead sunk even lower. The Jags currently hold a 2-7 record and it's hard to see them turning things around like they did in 2022. In fact, Seth Walder of ESPN assigned them to the worst-possible playoff tier in a recent ranking.

Walder sorted out NFL clubs into eight different groups. The higher the tier, the higher the team's odds of making the playoffs. To nobody's surprise, Jacksonville popped up in the cellar with a 1.5 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason and a 0.6 percent chance of winning the AFC South. That's certainly not where the Jags thought they would stand at this point of the season.

To add insult to injury, the tier was named "Rest for 2025", meaning that Walder doesn't think the teams in that category will go anywhere this season. Regarding the Jags, he's surprised the defense has underperformed even though they have bookend pass rushers Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen.

On the other hand, Walker has a positive assessment of Trevor Lawrence but doesn't think it accounts for much at this point of the year based on their win-loss record.

"The Jaguars shouldn't be this bad at pass defense, not with edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. But they rank last in EPA allowed per dropback, even though they picked off Sam Darnold three times on Sunday. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been sneakily solid in terms of efficiency -- he ranks 10th in QBR (61.1) -- but it's too late and now Lawrence is hurt, too. -- Walder"

Walder is right the defense has underachieved. When the team hired Ryan Nielsen to replace Mike Caldwell as the defensive coordinator, it thought his emphasis on fundamentals and technique was going to help the unit reach its potential. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case.

Under Nielsen, the Jaguars are 27th in points allowed and 32nd in total yards. In their defense, the group was 31st in points allowed at one of the seasons but showed out against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10, preventing them from reaching the end zone and limiting them to just 12 points.

Having said that, it would've been great if the Jaguars had played like that earlier in the season. As Walder points out, it's too little too late, especially when you take into account that Lawrence could miss extended playing time while he deals with a shoulder sprain. Already, he's sat out a game and is set to miss the Lions game.

The Jaguars won't probably throw in the towel but their season is technically over

No team is going to just wave the white flag with two months to go in the season. Having said that, analysts have already started to stick a fork on the Jacksonville Jaguars. They're currently a 13-point underdog against the Detroit Lions. Even if they pull off the upset, they would have to go 6-0 the rest of the way to have a shot at getting a playoff ticket. That looks like a daunting task based on how they've played this season.

In one game, the defense won't be able to stop opposing teams from putting points on the scoreboard. In others, the offense will be allergic to the end zone and struggle to move the football. The bottom line is that the Jags have found different ways to lose. That's not something good teams do. Then again, Jacksonville still has lots to play off with seven games left.

Head coach Doug Pederson is on the hot seat and will do anything he can not to get the boot. The front office, for its part, will need to evaluate the state of the roster and see which players won't return in 2025.

On the other hand, players in danger of being cap casualties or set to become free agents will want to make a strong impression to either stay in Jacksonville or woo potential suitors in the open market.

In the end, the season didn't go the way the Jacksonville Jaguars envisioned, and there may not be much else left to do besides planning for 2025, as ESPN suggests.

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