Jacksonville Jaguars to finish 4-12 in 2017 according to Jonathan Jones of SI.com

With rosters effectively set for each team, one writer thinks the Jaguars haven’t improved enough and will finish with a terrible record.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are once again receiving heaps of praise from analysts after a terrific series of free agent and draft acquisitions, but we have yet to see one of those talking heads take the next step and predict the team to have a good record in 2017. It makes sense considering how many of them were burned by the Jaguars in 2016, but I think we’ll start seeing some of them jump on the bandwagon as the summer months take over.

Jonathan Jones over at SI.com undertook the ambitious task of projecting the records of all 32 NFL teams, paying careful attention to add up all the wins and losses in a realistic way. He’s not convinced the Jaguars have done enough, particularly at quarterback, to warrant anything more than another horrific season:

"Projected record: 4–12There’s a great deal of excitement around the Jaguars because of their active free agency and with Tom Coughlin back in the building as executive VP, overseeing all football matters. But the Jaguars’ problem is at quarterback—Blake Bortles didn’t get better in Year 3 and no one in Jacksonville, including Bortles, is sugarcoating it. I’m not going to fall for the trap that this is Jacksonville’s year.Pivotal game: Week 6 vs. Rams. The NFL spared us from seeing the Jaguars in primetime this season, but the team still has to go overseas to face the Ravens in Week 3. That kicks off three games outside of Jacksonville (even if it’s technically a “home” game) before the Jags return home to face the Rams. Nine of the Jaguars’ past 11 wins over three seasons have come at home."

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To be fair, Jones is making a safe bet here – it’s probably more likely that the Jaguars bottom out with Bortles at quarterback than it is that they go 11-5 and win the division with him. The true outcome of the 2017 regular season will likely be somewhere in between, but as Jones talks about at the beginning of his piece, not every team can have a .500 or better record:

"Take, for example, ESPN’s NFL beat reporters, several of whom are friends of mine. Out of 32 writers, only six predicted the teams they cover will finish below .500 in 2017. This would be a mathematical impossibility, but picking just 16 games as opposed to all 256 can easily lead to more 10–6s and 11–5s than 4–12s."

When you pick every game, the numbers have to add up and that means some teams will finish with terrible records. He thinks the Jaguars are going to be one of those teams.

There’s not much really to discuss about this take – either Bortles improves and the Jaguars win more games than they have in recent years, or Bortles fails to take a step forward and the Jaguars spiral towards yet another top 5 pick. Jones opted for the latter and that’s fine.

I’m tentatively giving Bortles a shot to show me he has worked to improve over the offseason. I think he’s been putting the work in and the new level of accountability under head coach Doug Marrone will help. I think he’ll be much closer to 2015 Bortles than 2016 Bortles. If that’s the case, the Jaguars will be much better than 4-12.