Jacksonville Jaguars: Is Moneyball Working or Hurting Their Chances To Win?

Tony Khan is the Senior Vice President of Football Technology and Analytics for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Is his version of moneyball helping or hurting the Jaguars’ chances to win?

Since July of 2012, Tony Khan has been in charge of football technology and analytics. The analytics of sports has never been more in vogue than during the period Khan came to the Jaguars.

Overall, the Jaguars have not made the playoffs or won many games in that period of time. In fact, the Jags have been an abysmal 17-63 from 2012 to 2016. Does moneyball actually help or hurt Jacksonville’s chances to win for the long term?

Moneyball, the book and movie, gives insight into which statistics that teams should gather. Also, it gives a blueprint to replacing big time talent with role players. Especially early in Khan’s role with the Jaguars, the team jettisoned experienced players in favor of young, cheap players that were quickly thrust into starting roles. Few big-time free agents were pursued in 2012, 2013, and 2014 before the Jags opened up the wallet and started spending bigger.

The nine players with the biggest contracts on the roster have all been signed in 2015 or later. The Jags have managed to keep money tight while still bringing in some free agents like Roy Miller and Sen’Derrick Marks that the team relied on as starters for years.

Ways That Jacksonville is Implementing Moneyball Into Their Blueprint For Success

First, according to the IBM Journal of Research and Development:

"As valuable as analytics can be for planning a game-winning strategy, teams like the Jaguars aren’t letting that overshadow the potential it can have for designing winning fan experiences. Social media discussions can be analyzed to measure fan sentiment and engagement. Teams can use this insight to fuel their marketing decisions and promotional offers. In addition, statistics such as game attendance and merchandise purchases help teams improve ticketholder retention rates."

Next, the Jaguars had six tight ends on the roster until March 22. Mychal Rivera is the newest tight end which makes seven. Are the Jaguars trying to piece together a very good tight end or are they still setting their sights on the 2017 NFL Draft?

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Most noteworthy, it appears that Blake Bortles will be the starting quarterback in 2017. Football Outsiders, lists Bortles in the bottom half of quarterback rankings through January 2, 2017. Spotrac lists Bortles as the 25th highest paid quarterback based on cash value. Whether the Jaguars are getting a good return on Bortles, still in his rookie contract, and milk it for all it’s worth is worth wondering. Other teams, like the Chicago Bears recently handing Mike Glennon a large sum of money, are willing to spend exorbitantly to get the quarterback position right. Meanwhile, the Jags stand pat.

Jacksonville has plenty of money to acquire the talent needed to win the AFC South. The question is will they do it or try it the new analytic way. The upcoming draft should give more insight in which direction Jacksonville is moving, but past history of signing players to be starters in team-friendly deals (even if the overall figures may initially seem high) suggests that the Jags are willing to keep playing their own version of moneyball.

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