Bortles behind Carr, Winston, Mariota in terms of upside according to ESPN

While Blake Bortles has posted arguably the most impressive single-season statistics of any of the emerging young quarterbacks, not everyone is buying in.

Blake Bortles was put on a pedestal as soon as he was drafted 3rd overall in the 2014 NFL Draft by the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was a shocking pick, but a much needed one after the franchise suffered through legitimately worst stretch of quarterback play in the modern era of the NFL under Blaine Gabbert.

Things got off to a rocky start as Bortles put together a statistically awful rookie season (advanced metrics in particular did not favor him, as he had the league’s lowest QBR).

Many were worried about Bortles heading into his sophomore season, but the UCF product rose to the occasion and put together a record-setting season – his 35 touchdowns and 4,428 are tops in Jaguars history by a significant margin.

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It’s plain to see that Bortles’ trajectory is aimed quite high after such a massive leap in his second season.

Still, Bortles has some doubters, particularly at ESPN. Matt Bowen thinks he has the 4th highest upside among the quarterbacks 25-and-under.

"4. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville JaguarsThe upside: The 2015 numbers from Bortles jump off the page: 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns. Those are monster stats for a second-year quarterback. And we’ve seen the development on tape, too. In 2014, as a rookie, Bortles posted a lowly 25.2 Total QBR, but that climbed to 46.5 in his second season. And that speaks to his growth/upside.Bortles improved his footwork and field vision this past season and his overall technique is much better. Plus, he had more control of the offense in his second season. The arm strength? There’s enough. He can get the ball down the field and I love his size/athleticism in the pro game. At 6-foot-5, 246 pounds, with the movement skills to get to the edge of the pocket, Bortles has the frame to take shots over a 16-game season.Now, I will question some of those numbers he posted because of the game situation. Trailing often, Bortles could play without a conscience against some soft defensive looks. Think Cover 2 or Cover 6 (quarter-quarter-half) with defenses sitting back in zone shells. And Bortles took advantage of those opportunities with deep shots to wide receivers Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson.Take the game down in New Orleans this past season against the Saints. With the Jags in a 24-0 hole (after two rough Bortles interceptions), and a poor Saints defense sitting back deep in the secondary, Bortles had windows to expose. Take the drop and chuck it.Does that mean there is less upside for Bortles? Nah. But his overall numbers should take a drop this season. And that’s fine if the Gus Bradley’s squad can run the football and control the tempo while taking more calculated shots in the game plan.The concern: His decision making. He still forces throws and can be late with the ball (check out Josh Norman‘s pick against Bortles on a late throw to the flat). He needs to be quicker with his reads. Bortles threw 18 interceptions last season. And while some of that can be contributed the game situations we just talked about, he has to cut down on the turnovers. That’s a must."

Bowen has Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, and Marcus Mariota ranked ahead of Bortles.

I discussed some of the reasons people aren’t as high on Bortles in the “Tier 3” ranking piece recently, but it deserves reemphasizing.

Bowen’s “garbage time” argument is short-sighted and downright wrong and it’s also interesting to note that his “concern” could also apply to Derek Carr, the guy he has ranked number 1.

In a piece earlier this year, I noted that Carr was objectively bad in the last 8 games of the season:

"Over the last 8 games, Bortles (61% completion, 2235 yards, 18/8 TD/INT) posted better numbers than Carr (58.6% completion, 1893 yards, 13/9 TD/INT) and he did so under significantly more duress."

I’m not going to knock Bowen too much since this is clearly a highly opinionated piece, but I disagree. Bortles would top my list, with Mariota right behind him and Winston in third.

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