Lower Numbers For Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles?

Will Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles’ stats dip in 2016?

You want the short answer? I say “maybe a little bit.” Alas, there’s much more to it than that, so let’s take a good look at the variables affecting Blake Bortles and what he may show Jacksonville Jaguars Fans as well as fantasy football owners this season.

Still only 24 years of age, Blake Bortles smashed a number of franchise records for the Jags last season. A number of talking or typing heads have claimed that many of his 4,428 yards and 35 TDs came during the dreaded “garbage time” of games. A perusal of the box score tells us otherwise. In 2015, Bortles led his Jaguars into the fourth quarter still easily in contention during thirteen of his sixteen games.

"The sum total of his garbage time stats in 2015 was 397 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s not very much, folks."

For those keeping score, that means that 4,031 of his passing yards and 30 of his touchdowns were “straight-up legit” and untainted by any trash. (Still good for 11th in the league in both categories.)

Why is garbage time important to a 2016 outlook you ask? It’s because the Jaguars are expected to be more competitive in the coming season, and it’s good for fans and fantasy owners to know that a reduction in the amount of garbage time won’t dramatically cut into Bortles’ production. Other factors, like an improved defense and running game, are more likely to affect his numbers, however.

Jul 29, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back Chris Ivory (33) walks toward fans to sign autographs during training camp at Practice Fields at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /

While an improved defense (on paper) should keep scores closer and create less come-from-behind passing attempts, it’s the run game that I believe will really affect passing stats.

The Jaguars added RB Chris Ivory in free agency this offseason and speculation abounds concerning his role and his depth chart position. I envision Ivory and T.J. Yeldon serving as a true tandem for the Jaguars, with Ivory getting the nod a bit more often around the goal line. If healthy, I don’t see either heavily outweighing the other in number of carries. Regardless, Ivory’s signing is a positive shot-in-the-arm for a running game that struggled mightily in the red-zone last season.

Unfortunately, the primary reason for the lack of a red-zone run game remains a big fat question mark for the 2016 Jaguars. The offensive line.

The Jags lost their best guard (arguably their best lineman) to injury early in 2015. The young man in question is Brandon Linder, who is entering his third year and is now slated to be the starting center of the front five. While getting him back on the field does immediately raise the stock of this line, let’s just call his status as a starting center “unproven.”

Looking to Linder’s left is where we find former first rounder Luke Joeckel looking to hang on at left tackle or possibly re-invent himself at left guard. If Linder is “unproven” at Center, then the two positions to his left are still big, fat question marks.

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When the Jags signed

Kelvin Beachum

in March, the battle to protect Bortles’ blind-side was officially underway. Many view Beachum as a clear upgrade to Joeckel on the outside, but the fact that he’s only ten months removed from an ACL injury makes the position more uncertain.

Joeckel did manage to look capable playing LG in the team’s recent scrimmage,

giving fans a glimmer of hope that the line may eventually solidify.

"If the left portion of the offensive line does find a way to open more lanes for the dynamic RB tandem of Ivory and Yeldon, we may just see a shift in Bortles’ passing numbers. A shift down."

The young gunslinger attempted more than 35 passes in 9 contests last year and if the Jags achieve better run-blocking, that number is going to go down. Head coach Gus Bradley and his coordinator, Greg Olson, both preach balance when discussing offensive philosophy. If the Jags can manage to run the ball more successfully, fans will see them do it more often in 2016. That means fewer attempts to let it fly for Bortles.

While it’s conceivable that the Jaguars’ enviable arsenal of receivers may allow Bortles to produce gaudy numbers again despite a decrease in attempts, I don’t consider it likely. Fantasy owners will need Blake to have an improved completion percentage on the long ball to see similar production from him and they may be slightly disappointed. Discerning Jags fans on the other hand, are more likely to be focused on a different changing stat line. The Win/Loss column.

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