Blake Bortles: Reasonable expectations for 2016

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles had a major breakthrough in his second NFL season in 2015, but he’ll have to improve even more if he hopes to win more games in 2016.

Looking at Blake Bortles’ history thus far, it’s tough not to see success literally boiling over for the young quarterback.

In just his second season, Bortles went from one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL to one of the top 16, surprising the NFL. He’s tenacious, he’s risky, and he’s exciting to watch. Behind him, the Jacksonville Jaguars are competitive again. He’s a big reason for optimism in the 2016 season.

So, what can we expect from Blake Bortles in the coming year? What is a reasonable expectation for him?

While I think we’ll see progress from Bortles, it may not be as striking as it was from 2014 to 2015. His ceiling is high but he is much closer to that ceiling now than he was as a rookie, presenting less room to become impressively better on the stat sheet.

What we will see, instead, is improvements that will pass the eye test. We’ll see him drop back smoother, make better reads, throw the ball away in the right situations, play smarter football overall. We’ll see a moderate increase in completion percentage, more calculated risks than randomly “winging it,” and other improvements that may not hold muster on the stat sheet but should certainly improve the chances for the Jaguars to win games.

In the end, the important things to look at are yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and completion percentage. For his career, those numbers stand at 6.8, 4.3, 3.2, and 58.7 percent. Last season, they were 7.3, 5.8, 3.0, and 58.6 percent. Those numbers can improve, but by how much?

Dec 6, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) throws the ball during the second half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports /

I think it is reasonable to see the completion percentage move closer to, if not surpass 60 percent in 2016. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ receiving corps is improving and so is Bortles, not to mention the offensive line may finally give the quarterback the time he needs to make something happen on any given play.

With an increase in the completion percentage, I think it’s fair to assume that Bortles will have a corresponding increase in yards per attempt, but it will be modest. Completing more passes doesn’t necessarily mean completing more long passes (of which Bortles was a league leader in 2015), but it also doesn’t mean throwing it in the dirt which has happened far too often for Bortles in the past.

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Where things will get especially interesting for measuring expectations for Bortles is the number of opportunities he will get to throw touchdowns and interceptions. With an improved running attack spearheaded by Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon, the Jags won’t need to rely on Bortles’ arm as much to win games or punch it into the end zone. Expect his touchdowns to stay similar but his interceptions to decrease as a result.

In the end, it looks like Blake Bortles could finish 2016 with comparable numbers to 2015, especially if we’re basing our assumptions on reasonable extrapolations based on growth and development of the team’s offensive philosophy. We won’t see significant gains (so be cautious in fantasy football) but he should show improvement.

Predicted stat line: 341 of 560, 61 percent complete, 4300 yards, 33 touchdowns (5.8 percent), 12 inteceptions (2.1 percent), 7.6 yards per attempt. Less attempts due to a more balanced offense but tighter play from Bortles will make him a stand out quarterback even without increases in major statistical categories.

Later, we’ll look at optimistic expectations for Blake Bortles as well.

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