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Denard Robinson’s Breakaways Are Key

By Luke Sims

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Denard Robinson has helped provide balance to the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense. Or, perhaps it was Blake Bortles providing balance to the running game? Either way, without Robinson, the Jaguars don’t tend to do very well.

Last week’s win was more the exception than the rule as Robinson saw only 11 carries for 44 yards on the day. He tacked on three catches for 10 yards as well. (side note: last week was the fourth game out of the last five that Robinson has had exactly 10 receiving yards).

Usually the Jags don’t do well when not feeding Robinson, having won their first game of the season when he received over 20 carries and have been less and less competitive as his carries have dwindled. But if you tack on two defensive scores like they did last week, anything is possible.

Because Robinson is an important part of the Jaguars’ offense (552 yards while starting just eight games), I took a look at the league’s running backs to see where he stacked up.

Robinson’s 4.4 yards per attempt is quite good, but in no way league leading (17th among running backs with at least 25% of snaps). He gets in the end zone a fair bit (4) but is middle of the pack there as well. Similarly, he isn’t high in yards per game (46).

So why are we all so high on Robinson?

It’s because Shoelace has that rare breakaway ability that so many teams look for in running backs. It allows teams to blow a game open not just from the air but from the running game.

Pro Football Focus tracks running backs’ breakaway potential by tracking their runs for 15+ yards and how much yardage is racked up through those yards compared to runs below 15 yards (subscription required). Not surprisingly, Robinson ranks among the best in the league so far this season. In fact, he falls in at ninth overall.

Here’s the PFF signature stat in their own words:

"The Pro Football Focus “Breakaway Percentage” shows which runners earn the highest (and lowest) percentage of their yardage on big plays (any runs of 15 yards or more)."

Of Denard Robinson’s 552 yards rushing, 181 of them have come on runs of 15+ yards. That comes out to 32.8%, just below Bobby Rainey (33%) and above C.J. Anderson (32.1%) and Jamaal Charles (32%). In the top 10, only Rainey has less 15+ yard runs (6) than Robinson (7).

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If I’m Rainey and Robinson’s coaches, I’m looking at this and thinking, “I should hand him the ball more.” Why? Because the ability to break a game open from the running game, while picking up chunks of yards, controlling the clock, and moving the chains makes for a formidable offense. Game breakers DeMarco Murray (seventh in Breakaway Percentage), LeSean McCoy (sixth), and Arian Foster (fifth) are all up there a well. Their teams have recognized the ability of those players to break it big and, as a result, run their offenses through them.

Jacksonville offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch, however, hasn’t seemed to grasp that yet.

Right now Robinson is averaging a run of 15+ yards every 17 attempts. Yet he has only reached 17 attempts in a game three times this season. Not surprisingly, his per carry averages for those games were all over 5.5. He averaged 109 yards a game over those three games. The Jags need to get back to that, because when Robinson does break one open, he does it for an average of 25 yards. That’s demoralizing for a defense and it provides great balance for your offense. We all agree Blake Bortles wouldn’t mind a load taken off his shoulders.

Denard Robinson needs more attention in the Jags offense. He has the skills to really open things up for the team. As the Jags head to take on the Houston Texans on Sunday, they should seriously think about feeding Robinson more.

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