Jaguars Draft 2014 : To QB or NOT QB : 2012

Jaguars Draft 2014 : To QB or NOT QB : 2012 third round selection Russell Wilson

Welcome to Jaguars Draft 2014 : To QB or NOT QB : 2012. There is no doubt that when the Jacksonville Jaguars draft 3rd in the 2014 NFL draft that there will be a QB available to them. Teddy Bridgewater. Blake Bortles. Johnny Manziel. One of them will be there. Even the casual Jags fan knows that QB is a position of need. There also could be one of the better pass rushers to come into the league for many years in Jadeveon Clowney also waiting to be picked.

The Jags have needed a DE for about the history of this franchise. Who should the Jags pick? Clowney, whom many feel will make an immediate impact? Or the QB that will hopefully wash the bile from our throats that was Blaine Gabbert. All come with some kind of visible flaw that could prevent them from ever being a true “franchise” player? Is it possible that the prudent move Dave Caldwell could make is trade out of this advantageous spot?

It has become very clear that a general manager that makes the mistake of drafting a QB that fails to hit will pretty much seal their fate along with their job security. For that reason, I am going to tackle this situation with a little science. Some statistical data to honor the tradition of “Those who ignore history are bound (or doomed) to repeat it”. I am going to go over the QB draft picks for the last ten years to get an idea if the mindset that I have had (that a serviceable QB could be drafted AFTER the first round) holds any water. I have made it clear in my “Gumbussy Mock Drafts” that I want Clowney if he is available. Would that be a mistake. Let’s see what recent history indicates. We have already gone over:

• 2004
• 2005
• 2006
• 2007
• 2008
• 2009
• 2010
• 2011

The year is 2012. Overall there were eleven QBs drafted that year. Here’s the breakdown & stats.

• Round one – Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, & Brandon Weeden

Combined Career – 115 games played, 26,922 passing yds, 141 TDs, & 100 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 81.0. They have also combined for three Pro Bowls, one Rookie of the Year, and one playoff victory.

Add to the tally an addition 19 rushing TDs by this group and they are very productive. But they also added an additional 68 fumbles. That is WAY too many turnovers. Luck was considered one of the better young QBs to come into the league and it is well deserved, especially coming off his first playoff victory. He also has been maddenly inconsistent at times with a better supporting cast than people realize. RGIII managed to get to the playoffs his first year, but sustained a serious knee injury. The fact that he still managed to be able to start 2013 says a lot about his work ethic but last year was by all accounts a lost year. We’ll see what he is able to do in 2014 with another year of rehab and a new coach. Tannyhill could be a playoff caliber QB or out of a starting position within the next two years. It’s up to him. Everybody who knows anything about football knew the Browns reached taking Weeden in the first round and new management has rectified that by cutting him this offseason. He now is a backup with the Cowboys and will hopefully never see the field again.

• Round two thru five – Brock Osweiler (2nd), Russell Wilson (3rd), Nick Foles (3rd), & Kirk Cousins (4th)

Combined Career – 69 games played, 12,492 passing yds, 93 TDs, & 36 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 87.2. They have also combined for three Pro Bowls, one Rookie of the Year, three playoff wins, two Super Bowl appearances and one World Championship.

HOLY CRAP!!! What a group of elite QBs. If you removed Cousins’ 68.6 QB rating (still pretty damn good), the ratings of Osweiler, Wilson,and Foles combined is a ridiculous 93.4!!! Osweiler, of course, is an unknown talent because you don’t play much when you backup Peyton Manning. Cousins is one of the most sought after backups in the NFL and would probably already be traded if RG3 hadn’t had his injuries. Foles had an amazing season and with the release of Michael Vick is now the man for the Eagles. What more can you say about Wilson except…World Champion!

• Round six & seven – Ryan Lindley (6th), B.J. Coleman (7th), & Chandler Harnish (7th)
  
  

Combined Career – 6 games played (all Lindley), 752 passing yds, 0 TDs, & 7 INTs. Lindley has a QB rating average of 46.7. They have also combined for NOTHING. The other two have never taken a regular season snap.

Now we are back to earth. This is a sad group. Coleman is out of the league. Harnish has been released an resigned twice by the Colts and is hoping to be Andrew Luck’s backup in 2014, which means he probably will still never hit the field. Lindley was given the chance to be the starter for the Cardinals in 2012 and whizzed all over himself! He will be lucky to retain a backup role in 2014.

Summary of the 2011 QB draft class:

First round selections – Luck and a healthy RG3 are everything that’s good about the NFL. The scouts were right about those two. The verdict is still out on Tannehill. As for Weeden…I’d like a hot apple pie with my value meal, please!

Rounds two thru seven – Disregard the 6th and 7th round picks. The selections of Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Kirk Cousins make this an outstanding year for the second tier QB selections. I would take both Wilson and Foles over any of the 1st rounders.

The verdict from this ninth experiment would indicate the Jags should not be scared to let the first two rounds go without selecting a QB, especially with this years deep crop of project players. That’s why we resigned Henne, so we could take a guy that may need to sit a year. We will see how the current GMs do in May.

See ya in 2013!

Still hoping Clowney is available at #3…Michael McDonald.

Please send comments to twitter @gumbussy.