Jacksonville Jaguars Friday Fact or Fiction: Bye Week Edition

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The Jacksonville Jaguars have not had the most successful season in regards to wins and losses, which of course is the only metric that truly matters in the NFL. Teams with enough wins make it to the playoffs, and at that point anything can happen and everyone is a contender.

Well the Jaguars are sitting at 1-9 as we enter their bye week, but it would be naive to label their season as a total failure. While some, including myself, expected the Jaguars to have a few more wins than just 1 at this point, there are still plenty of encouraging developments throughout the team. Young players throughout the roster have flashed, and some are emerging as guys who could become long-term answers. Over the final 6 games, the Jaguars should have a decent shot of accumulating at least a couple more wins.

With all that in mind, here are my rock solid predictions for rest of the season:

Blake Bortles will finish the season with more touchdowns than interceptions: FACT

Since taking over as the starter halfway through week 3, Blake Bortles has thrown a league-leading 14 interceptions. He threw 10 of those interceptions in his first 18 quarters of play, but he’s toned it down in recent weeks. In his last 12 quarters of play, he’s only thrown 4 interceptions. He’s still yet to have a turnover-free game, but Bortles is moving in the right direction as far as decision making and taking care of the football. He’s been more selective about taking shots downfield and there have been noticeably less “risky” throws over the past 3 weeks. His interception against Dallas in London was a result of forcing the issue due to an enormous deficit.

I’m being extremely optimistic here – Bortles has to throw at least 6 more touchdowns than interceptions over the final 6 weeks to reach this lofty goal. Luckily, he’s facing a handful of less than stellar pass defenses in Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee and Baltimore. Currently sitting at 8 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, I expect (and really hope) Bortles will finish somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

Chris Clemons will finish with 7+ sacks: FICTION

Chris Clemons already has 4 sacks on the season, so it’s reasonable to expect him to get 3 more in the final 6 games right? The reality is Chris Clemons has been a massive disappointment since getting a fairly big contract this offseason to become the team’s primary pass rusher. According to Pro Football Focus, Chris Clemons is the worst 4-3 defensive end in the entire league – his (-22.1) overall grade is almost 6 points lower than the 2nd worst grade (Robert Geathers of Cincinnati). Clemons will continue to get snaps because of his experience and Andre Branch‘s injury, but the Jaguars should really consider turning to rookie Chris Smith and seeing what he can before the end of year. Given Clemon’s lack of production and overall effectiveness, there’s really not too much to worry about putting a rookie in his spot.

Marqise Lee will finish with 3+ touchdowns: FACT

If I think Bortles is going to throw 10 touchdowns or so over the final 6 games, someone has to be catching them. Marqise Lee has been basically invisible since coming back from injury, accumulating only 10 targets in his last 4 games. Fortunately for Lee, he’s going to be forced into a bigger role due to Allen Robinson‘s season ending injury. Robinson was easily Bortles’ favorite receiver this season (he had a team leading 76 targets), and the rest of the receivers are going to start getting a lot more looks in his absence. Lee and Bortles hooked up for the team’s biggest play this preseason (see below), but that connection hasn’t materialized so far this season. Whether it’s on Lee or the coaches, the Jaguars need to find a way to utilize Lee’s speed and start hitting some big plays down the field. They should be able to at least get him going over the final 6 weeks.

It’s been a frustrating season on many respects, but for me it’s really easy to pin down – the Jaguars are painfully close to putting it together and becoming a competitive team. The defense has been solid to dominant at times, and they finally established a consistent running game thanks to Denard Robinson. The Jaguars have received terrific production from their young receivers, and that’s with very little contribution (so far) from Marqise Lee. It all really comes down to Blake Bortles and what he does in this final 6 game stretch. He’s a rookie and he’s made quite a few egregious mistakes, but the talent and the mental makeup is there.

The Jaguars are going to figure it out in a few of these final 6 games, and they’ll match last year’s record.

PREDICTION:  Jaguars finish 4-12