Welcome to Jaguars Draft 2014 : To QB or NOT QB : 2013. There is no doubt that when the Jacksonville Jaguars draft 3rd in the 2014 NFL draft that there will be a QB available to them. Teddy Bridgewater. Blake Bortles. Johnny Manziel. One of them will be there. Even the casual Jags fan knows that QB is a position of need. There also could be one of the better pass rushers to come into the league for many years in Jadeveon Clowney also waiting to be picked.
The Jags have needed a DE for about the history of this franchise. Who should the Jags pick? Clowney, whom many feel will make an immediate impact? Or the QB that will hopefully wash the bile from our throats that was Blaine Gabbert. All come with some kind of visible flaw that could prevent them from ever being a true “franchise” player? Is it possible that the prudent move Dave Caldwell could make is trade out of this advantageous spot?
It has become very clear that a general manager that makes the mistake of drafting a QB that fails to hit will pretty much seal their fate along with their job security. For that reason, I am going to tackle this situation with a little science. Some statistical data to honor the tradition of “Those who ignore history are bound (or doomed) to repeat it”. I am going to go over the QB draft picks for the last ten years to get an idea if the mindset that I have had (that a serviceable QB could be drafted AFTER the first round) holds any water. I have made it clear in my “Gumbussy Mock Drafts” that I want Clowney if he is available. Would that be a mistake. Let’s see what recent history indicates. We have already gone over:
The year is 2013. Overall there were twelve QBs taken that year. Here’s the breakdown & stats.
- Round one – E.J. Manuel
Manuel Career – 10 games played, 1,972 passing yds, 11 TDs, & 9 INTs. He had a QB rating average of 77.7. He accomplished one Rookie of the week award.
Most experts questioned the Bills selection of Manuel in the first round. At this point, their scepticism has been supported. Manuel started well before injury derailed his year. With a better supporting cast and continued health, he may justify his high draft selection.
- Round two thru five – Geno Smith (2nd), Mike Glennon (3rd), Matt Barkley (4th), Ryan Nassib (4th), Tyler Wilson (4th), & Landry Jones (4th)
Combined Career – 32 games played, 5,954 passing yds, 31 TDs, & 34 INTs. They have a combined QB rating average of 195. They have also combined for one All-Rookie team and two Rookie of the Week award. Three have not taken a regular season NFL snap.
It’s impossible to completely rate these players accurately because it’s only been a year. I will say that I told everyone who would listen to me that Geno Smith would not be successful in the NFL and he’s made me look like a genius. He didn’t have the correct temperament nor exude confidence. (I feel the same way about Teddy Bridgewater…but that’s something completely different). The best of the lot was Mike Glennon. Yet he was so good that Tampa Bay not only paid big money to journeyman Josh McCown but also named him starter for 2014. Barkley was horrible when he got his shot per injuries. The others are either backups or practice squad members. A underwhelming group to say the least.
- Round six, seven, & UFA – Brad Sorensen (7th), Zac Dysert (7th), Sean Renfree (7th), B. J. Daniels (7th), & Matthew McGloin (UFA)
Combined Career – 7 games played (all McGloin), 1,547 passing yds, 8 TDs, & 8 INTs. McGloin had a QB rating average of 76.1. They have also combined for a Super Bowl Appearance and one Rookie of the Year award. The other four have never taken a regular season snap.
All are backups or practice squad members. McGloin got to play some last year per injury to Terrelle Pryor and poor play of Matt Flynn (SHOCKER). With the Raiders anticipated to select a QB in the draft, McGloin will return to backup status.
Summary of the 2013 QB draft class:
First round selection – Manuel is a decent player who could get better with better teammates, but he probably wasn’t worthy of a first round selection.
Rounds two thru seven & UFA – As I’ve stated, it’s too early to tell but this is shaping up to be one of the poorest groups of QBs to be drafted in a single year.
The verdict from this tenth and final experiment would indicate the Jags should Just select their QB where he deserves to be picked and only the guy you like. Don’t get desperate. That’s why we resigned Henne, so we could take a guy and hope he matures into a franchise QB. As these ratings over the last 10 years has shown, it’s a crap shoot. Let’s just hope when we shoot, we don’t get too much crap on us! We will see how the current GMs do in two weeks.
See ya at the 2014 NFL Draft!
Still praying Clowney is available at #3…Michael McDonald.
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