I know all of you Black and Teal readers are upstanding citizens and would never be involved with something as insidious as gambling on sports, but the prop bets Vegas puts up at the beginning of the season are always an interesting study. In general, the Jaguars have a pretty negative outlook from the national media but the odds-makers in Vegas usually have a better grasp of things than talking heads on ESPN and the like. Here are some of the more intriguing player odds:
Blaine Gabbert – How many games will he start in the 2013 Regular Season
Maurice Jones-Drew – Total Rushing Yards in the 2013 Regular Season
Maurice Jones-Drew – Total Rushing Touchdowns in the 2013 Regular Season
Maurice Jones-Drew – Will he be a member of the Jaguars for Game 1 of the 2014 Regular Season?
Yes +200 (2/1)
No -300 (1/3)
Cecil Shorts – Total Receiving Yards in the 2013 Regular Season
Cecil Shorts – Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2013 Regular Season
Marcedes Lewis – Total Receiving Yards in the 2013 Regular Season
Marcedes Lewis – Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2013 Regular Season
Jason Babin – Total Sacks in the 2013 Regular Season
Let’s go through all the odds and give you my recommendations:
- Take the over on Gabbert starting at least 11 games. The team probably won’t start Henne at any point if Gabbert is healthy, and they’ll ride Gabbert through at least ¾ of the season even if he’s bad.
- Take the over on yards and touchdowns for MJD. He’s in a contract year and he seems pretty healthy. Put your money on “No” for MJD being a Jaguar next year.
- I would stay away from both Shorts bets but if you’re going to do it take the over on both. Shorts is going to be the best receiver on the team but he needs to stay healthy. Concussions usually happen randomly but it’s better to be cautious.
- Take the under on yards for Lewis but the over on touchdowns. The Jaguars utilized the tight end a lot in the red zone this preseason (see Allen Reisner) so he should get a handful of touchdowns, but not as many yards.
- Take the under on Babin’s sack total. Ten sacks would be a lot considering how poor the Jaguars’ pass rush has been over the last several years, and Babin hasn’t looked like a double-digit sacker this preseason.
Prop bets on player number totals are tough because there’s always the risk of injury, which is why I don’t go anywhere near them. But feel free to risk a few bucks, just don’t blame me when these are all wrong.
- Daniel Lago
Yell at me on Twitter @dlago89
*Odds from Bovada.lv