Why the Jaguars won't feel buyer's remorse after paying Trevor Lawrence

• The Jaguars should be thrilled about having Trevor Lawrence under contract at an affordable rate through 2030.
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16), Dec. 17, 2023, at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla.
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16), Dec. 17, 2023, at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA

A player is worth what a team is willing to pay them. That said, signing a top-market contract comes with a set of expectations. In the case of Trevor Lawrence, he's seen as the chosen one who'll take the Jacksonville Jaguars to the promise land after signing a mega extension. The ink hasn't even dried yet but Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report thinks the Jags made a poor investment.

Gagnon drew up a list of blockbuster contracts NFL teams will come to regret and included Lawrence's deal, arguing that he wasn't particularly great last year. He goes on to say that the Jags aren't in a position to win right now, so it didn't make sense to make such a hefty investment at the quarterback position.

"They aren't exactly positioned to win in the short term anyway. They still have yet to finish above 9-8 with Lawrence, who was the league's 21st-highest-rated passer during a disappointing third pro season in 2023. There's a good chance that the 2021 No. 1 overall pick never lives up to his draft hype."

While it's true that Lawrence is coming off a somewhat disappointing season, Gagnon is leaving out plenty of context. Nobody will deny he ranked 21st in passer rating among quarterbacks last year but there are other metrics in which he was among the best in the league. When it comes to Adjusted EPA, for example, Lawrence was in the top 3. Simply put, there's some key context missing.

As a wise man once said, you can make anything sound bad if you spend all day shuffling words around. In this case, you can make Steezy Trev look as bad as Daniel Jones if you choose a limited sample.

It's also worth noting that Lawrence played at an elite level to end 2022 and even helped Jacksonville put together one of the biggest comebacks in playoff history. Heading into last season, he routinely cracked the top-5 in most rankings and hardly ever made it past No. 7.

This isn't to say Lawrence cannot improve. He must certainly cut down on the lost fumbles. He had seven last year. That's simply too much. On the other hand, he should have no trouble fixing that issue with much better protection, which he'll tentatively get in 2024.

The deal is a win-win for the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence

At first sight, paying a premium for a quarterback, who only has one playoff win to his resume, doesn't look like a great investment. And while Trevor Lawrence's deal isn't spare change, it's not a market-setting extension either. For starters, it doesn't truly kick in until 2026. By paying him two years before he's contract is set to expire, the Jags are getting ahead of the curve and saving themselves plenty of cash in the process.

On the other hand, you could choose to see the deal as an extension that added years to his rookie deal. In that case, he's going to be getting an annual average of $40 million from now until 2030. Paying that kind of salary to a quarterback, one who's shown he can play at a high level, seems like a sound investment.

Of course, the contract comes with expectations, but Lawrence has shown he's capable of carrying the Jaguars on his shoulders. With a little help, they could make some serious noise in the foreseeable future.

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