Travon Walker must prove in 2024 the Jaguars were right to pass on Aidan Hutchinson

For many NFL draft observers in 2022, Aidan Hutchinson was the obvious pick at No. 1 overall. The Jacksonville Jaguars held the top pick for the second year in a row, having just canned their one-and-done disaster of a head coach, Urban Meyer.

In the wake of Meyer's "leadership," the Jags still had multiple needs having taken franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence the year prior, and could certainly use a pass-rusher opposite Josh Allen.

"Hutch" was the most ready-made pass-rusher available in a draft littered with edge defenders. A number of names were thrown around that year as great pass-rush prospects, but Hutch was considered by most to be the best. He had good college stats, the most hardware including the Lombardi Award, Lott IMPACT Trophy, and Ted Hendricks Awards, excellent measurables, and a dizzying array of pass-rush moves.

Heck, even Aidan Hutchinson himself thought he was going to Jacksonville for a while. You can see him talking about it here:

Now, keep in mind that Hutchinson, at 6'7" and 260 pounds, had excellent size and length. But, dang those short arms. If anybody knows anything about Trent Baalke, it's that he loves long arms, whereas short arms give him the creeps.

Anybody who knew Baalke should have taken one look at those arms on Walker, measuring a full three inches longer than Hutchinson's, and bet the mortgage on Walker being the pick. Three inches makes a big difference.

And so it went that the Jaguars spurned instant pass-rush production in the form of Aidan Hutchinson, and instead went with unproven, but sky-high potential in the form of Travon Walker. Thus, the two edge defenders would be forever linked in the minds of draftniks, one a plug-and-play superstar, the other more of a project with a higher ceiling.

If drafting a project with the number one overall selection seems weird in retrospect, take note that it seemed weird at the time, too, especially with Hutchinson available. Still, fans in Duval settled into the idea of Walker taking some time to develop, and as overall team success took center stage, many fans forgot about the Walker vs. Hutchinson debate.

The Travon Walker vs. Aidan Hutchinson debate will continue in 2024

Well, let the debate resume. Because it is now the beginning of their third season, and for that pick to make any sense at all, this is the year that Walker must become the dominant player he was projected to be. The good news is, he's showing signs that he may do just that.

Walker has never been a bad pick. No one has ever questioned whether he is a good overall football player. The question has been whether it was worth waiting on his potential when a highly productive player at the same position was also available.

By the way, as expected, Hutchinson did start producing right away, grabbing 9.5 sacks and 30 quarterback pressures right out of the shoot as a rookie. Compare that to Walker's 3.5 sacks and 21 pressures, and the rookie years played out as everyone thought.

Year 2 progressed similarly. Hutch upped his stats to 11.5 sacks and a whopping 62 pressures, which led the league by a lot. By way of comparison, Josh Hines-Allen was fourth in the league in pressures with 46 in 2023.

Meanwhile, Walker improved his sack total to 10 and accumulated 30 pressures, which was good enough for 24th in the league; not eye eye-popping, but steady improvement for a player considered to be a project. It's hard not to notice, though, that Walker's second-year stats nearly mirror Hutchinson's rookie stats.

So what does Walker have to do in Year 3 to make Jaguars fans forget about Aidan Hutchinson?

It's pretty clear Hutchinson isn't going to slow down any time soon. He is a wrecking ball. But, by the end of the 2024 season, Walker will be more than halfway through his rookie contract. Time is running out for him to prove that he is at least as good as Hutchinson.

Statistically, Walker would do well just to match what Hutchinson did last year. You'd like to see more than 11.5 sacks, but if that came with more than 60 QB pressures, the season would be a remarkable success.

"Travon Walker will continue to rise to different and new heights in 2024, and have a huge, huge season for the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think he's going to be considered for those all-whatever teams at the end of the season, also."

- Tony Wiggins, Locked On Jaguars

If you assume a reasonable best-case scenario, and Walker collects somewhere in the neighborhood of 45 pressures and 17 sacks, you would call that a great success. Those numbers are pretty much what Josh Hines-Allen did last year, by the way, and he seemed to unofficially attain "wrecking ball" status in the eyes of most.

But, those are the kind of numbers people should be talking about. It should be dazzling. It should make you say, "Whoah." Don't forget, Hutchinson may yet improve as well. The thought was that Walker had a higher ceiling. But, there's no reason to believe Hutchinson has reached his ceiling yet, either.

So, Walker needs to actually pass Hutchinson at some point in terms of production to make the pick correct. If he matches him this year, would that be enough?

For the sake of argument, imagine both Hutch and Walker have excellent years with the numbers above, and then Walker actually surpasses Hutchinson's production in 2025.

That's too late. Because then Walker gives you only one year of superior production and at that point, it's new contract time.

No, the time is now for Walker to become the dominant physical and statistical force he was drafted to be. The project must be complete. It's time for Walker to surpass Aidan Hutchinson in production, and if he does that, the Jaguars' defense will have a very good year.

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