Projecting Jaguars 2023 Touchdown Totals using Fantasy Football

In a recent podcast, JJ Zachariason shared a revelation: Fantasy Football Average Draft Position (ADP) data can be used to predict an NFL team’s offensive touchdowns. So using his method, how will the Jacksonville Jaguars fare in that department in 2023?

The Jags scored a total of 41 touchdowns on offense last year, how much better (or worse) will they be in 2023?

What is Average Draft Position in Fantasy Football?

In fantasy football, like the NFL draft, managers go through drafting players from certain positions (QB, WR, etc.), normally in a snake draft. To prepare for these drafts, managers tend to use the ADP to understand where players are typically being drafted. For example, here is the current Top-10 ADP according to the fantasy football calculator as of July 31st:

So, on average, Ja’Marr Chase is being drafted 6.3 overall and is the second wide receiver off the board.

What Did JJ Find and how could this predict the Jaguars' TD totals in 2023?

In Fantasy Football, you generally want to draft players on effective offenses. The more effective the offense, the more touchdowns to go around, the more likely your player is to score.

JJ found that fantasy football managers are actually pretty good at evaluating this. In fact, his data found that using pass-based — quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends — fantasy football ADP was more effective than using last year’s touchdowns to predict the upcoming year. To hear his full findings, check out The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast episode from June 27th.

Where Do the Jaguars Rank?

JJ’s analysis counts the number of players from a given team are drafted as Top-12 Quarterback, a Top-30 wide receiver, or a Top-6 tight end. The more players that fit in the category tend to lead to more effective audiences.

In 2023, the Jaguars have 2 players in that fit this criteria: Trevor Lawrence (QB8) and Calvin Ridley (WR15). It should be noted that Christian Kirk (WR31) and Evan Engram (TE9) narrowly miss out on this list and, based on where you get your data, they may also count.

With two players, the Jaguars will be expected to finish 14th in offensive touchdowns in 2023. This would lead to 39.1 touchdowns (2.3 per Game). As noted before, Jacksonville finished 10th with 41 touchdowns (2.4 per game) last year.

Should the Jaguars press the panic button?

In the end, this is far from a perfect analysis. The Jaguars went into 2022 with zero players drafted within the criteria above, which would have given them an expectation of 32 touchdowns. They outperformed this by nine:

Similarly, the Chiefs only had two players (Mahomes and Kelce) drafted in the top criteria last year and they finished second with 3.4 touchdowns per game. In 2023, it is just Mahomes and Kelce drafted at the top again.

What About the Rest of the AFC South?

Unsurprisingly, the Texans and the Colts don’t have any high-drafted pass-based players while the Titans only have new signing DeAndre Hopkins in the top 30. This would give the Texans and Colts expected touchdowns of 32, while the Titans would have 36.

These are trends, and outliers occur every year, but this is another indicator that the Jaguars' offense is getting deserved praise and is in a different tier than the rest of the AFC South.

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