Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence can win MVP honors in 2023 but must also clear big hurdles

Trevor Lawrence has a clear path to the Most Valuable Player Award
Jacksonville Jaguars Training Camp
Jacksonville Jaguars Training Camp / James Gilbert/GettyImages
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Patrick Mahomes isn't the only hurdle Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has to clear to win MVP

Mahomes isn't the only big name quarterback Lawrence will face this season, and he will do so on some of the biggest stages. Early in October, Lawrence faces perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen in London. Played at 9:30 a.m. ET, it will be the sole game on television that morning. Then in December he faces former MVP Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens on a Sunday night and MVP candidate Joe Burrow of the Bengals on Monday Night Football.

While Lawrence doesn't have to sweep these four games, he must play well and prove he is worthy of MVP consideration. If he wins three of the four, he becomes a serious contender. To be the best, ya gotta beat the best.

Trevor Lawrence introduced himself to the nation on a Saturday in Super Wild Card Weekend when he beat one of the best in Justin Herbert,engineering a comeback for the ages against the San Diego Chargers. Lawrence now has the 16th (coincidence?) best selling jersey in football, according to the NFLPA (the players union).

On top of that, CBS Sports has has Lawrence at 16-1 — a pattern is starting to emerge — to win the MVP. Things definitely appear to be on the upswing for Lawrence.

No quarterback has won MVP honors in Year 3 of their careers

Working against Trevor Lawrence's candidacy is that no third-year quarterback has ever won the MVP. Walter Payton is the only player to win the award in his third year.

Only four quarterbacks in the 65-year history of the award have won MVP before Year 3: The aforementioned Mahomes and Jackson, plus Kurt Warner and Dan Marino, all of whom put up monster numbers in their MVP years, respectively.

Although Lawrence's numbers were infinitely better than his rookie campaign, they were still pedestrian by today's standards. In comparing his numbers with the average of the last seven league MVPs, with the exception of completion percentage, Lawrence has his work cut out for him.

Trevor Lawrence

25 TDs


4,113 yards

66.8% Comp.

95.2 QB Rating

Last 7 MVPs

40 TD


4,487 yards

67.7% Comp.

112.2 QB Rating