Jaguars fare well in ESPN's 2024 simulation but still fall short of expectations

After an impressive turnaround in 2022, the Jacksonville Jaguars were expected to qualify for the postseason and even make a deep run last year. However, they came up short of expectations. The good news is that Seth Walder of ESPN projects the Jags to be back in the playoffs in 2024.

Walder ran ONE simulation of the 2024 season and had the Jags making the playoffs as a wild card. On the downside, they're one-and-done, losing to the Cincinnati Bengals.

In Walder's simulation, Jacksonville is 8-7 heading into Week 17 but manage to win their last two games to move to 10-7.

The Jags got off to a strong start in 2023, going 8-3 to start the season. However, they won just one of their last six games. But as underwhelming as they were, they had a chance to get into the playoffs if they had beaten the Tennessee Titans in the finale. They lost and had to watch the postseason from home.

Following the disappointing end to 2023, the Jaguars made several upgrades to the roster. They also dismissed defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and brought in Ryan Nielsen to take his place. On top of that, general manager Trent Baalke gave long-term deals to franchise cornerstones Trevor Lawrence, Josh-Hines Allen, and Tyson Campbell.

After all the investments the Jags, along with the commitment to spend $1.4 billion on renovations to EverBank Stadium, owner Shad Khan expects them to win, pointing out that it's the most talented team they've ever put together.

While you can make the case the 1999 Jaguars were more stacked, Khan is right to set a higher bar for the team. After all, Jacksonville was one of the worst teams in the league throughout the 2010s, and things didn't get much better during the Urban Meyer debacle.

With a franchise quarterback in place and having seen what they accomplished the past two years, the Jaguars must aim high in 2024.

Why making the playoffs just won't cut it for the Jaguars in 2024

The Jags won just one game in 2020, so you would think things couldn't get worse, right? Wrong, Urban Meyer managed to sink the team even lower in 2022, demoralizing everyone who stood in his way. Tasked with healing the team, Doug Pederson had his work cut down when he became the head coach in 2022.

Against all odds, Pederson was able to right the ship in his first season at the helm, turning the Jags into a playoff team and leading them to their first division championship since 2017. Heading into 2023, Jacksonville was no longer flying under the radar and was even seen as a potential Super Bowl sleeper. Although they ultimately came crashing down, they still retain the core that was responsible for their postseason berth in 2022.

Imagining last year was just a speed bump, the Jaguars showed in 2022 that they can advance beyond the Wild Card round. As noted before, Trevor Lawrence is here to stay, having signed a five-year deal worth $275 million in the offseason. Doug Pederson is still calling the shots, and the front office added reinforcements to both sides of the ball.

Simply put, the Jaguars are capable of at least reaching the Divisonal Round of the playoffs, and if they live up to the potential, the AFC Championship. Does it sound like a high bar to clear? Maybe, but Jacksonville is capable of pulling it off. Shad Khan knows it and doesn't expect any less.

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