Jaguars RB Travis Etienne will be a happy man if B/R wild prediction comes true

While salaries for most position groups in the NFL go up on a yearly basis, those for running backs have stalled. In fact, you could even make the case that they're going down. That said, there are still a handful of running backs who'll break the back. Maurice Moton of Bleacher Report believes Travis Etienne could be one of them, going as far as saying that he has a chance to reset the market when the Jacksonville Jaguars give him a new deal.

Moton drew up a list of players who could reset the market at their respective positions and argues that Etienne could get a record-breaking deal, citing his role on the Jaguars offense as a reason.

"Nick Chubb will garner some buzz among impending free agents if the Cleveland Browns allow him to hit the open market, but he's going into his age-29 term coming off a torn ACL. The club hasn't set a timetable for Chubb's return.

At 25, Travis Etienne is a few years younger than Chubb. He also plays a bigger role in his team's short passing attack, which will allow his agent to push the envelope at the negotiating table.

After Etienne sat out his entire rookie campaign with a foot injury, he's bounced back with 1,400-plus scrimmage yards in consecutive terms. Between 2022 and 2023, Etienne saw a drop-off in his rushing yards per game, but he more than doubled his touchdown total in the same time span."

Back in 2021, Nick Chubb signed a three-year contract worth $36 million. Like Etienne, he's slated to hit the open market next year but he won't probably command a top-market salary unless he shows he's still the same player he was before tearing his ACL.

This past offseason, Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley signed contracts in free agency that pay each an annual average of $12 million, proof that salaries at running back haven't gone up considerably. That said, the San Francisco 49ers gave Christain McCaffrey a four-year, $64 million deal this past offseason.

McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL, so it's not particularly shocking that he's the highest-paid player at the position. A first-round pick in 2018, the Stanford product got off to a strong start to his NFL career. However, injuries and the Carolina Panthers' inability to use him correctly eventually hampered his production.

It wasn't until he was traded to the 49ers in 2022 that McCaffrey enjoyed a career revival. Last year, he toted the rock 272 times for 1,459 yards with 14 touchdowns. On top of that, he had 67 receptions for 564 yards with seven touchdowns.

For comparison, Etienne had 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns on 267 carries while hauling in 58 receptions for 476 yards with one touchdown in 2023.

A first-round pick in the 2021 draft, Etienne is entering his fourth NFL season and is currently eligible for a contract. Although he missed his rookie campaign with a Lisfranc injury, he's posted back-to-back consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. His yard-per-carry average went from 5.1 yards in 2022 to 3.8 last season, but he was still working to get the tough yards, leading the league in broken tackles.

Furthermore, you could point to the offensive line's inability to open lanes as the main reason for Etienne's regression in terms of yards-per-carry. Working in his favor is that the Jaguars made upgrades upfront, so the Louisiana native will have an easier time finding holes next season.

Why Jaguars RB Travis Etienne may not get a bigger contract than Christian McCaffrey

Unlike his predecessor, general manager Trent Baalke has made a strong effort to retain the team's core players. The Jacksonville Jaguars locked up quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and defensive end Josh Hines-Allen in the offseason. They also gave linebacker Foyesade Oluokun an extension. Last year, they gave tight end Evan Engram a top-market contract. It's fair to assume that they'll also try to re-sign Travis Etienne at some point in 2024, or next year.

Having said that, it's hard to see Etienne getting a record-breaking deal. He'll certainly get paid but it will be surprising to see Jacksonville give him a deal that pays him a higher annual salary than Christian McCaffrey. The production is certainly there, and after revamping the offseason, the fourth-year running back could have a banner year.

On the other hand, Etienne doesn't have much leverage. The Jags picked up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. He's set to make a manageable $4.6 million in 2024, and $6.1 million next year. Compounding the issue is that the front office may prioritize paying safety Andre Cisco, and cornerback Tyson Campbell before Etienne.

If he were playing another position, Etienne could bet on himself and get a massive record when he hits free agency in 2026. However, salaries at running back won't be much different two years from now. This doesn't mean the Jaguars won't reward him but rather they might give him a contract that is on par to those Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley in free agency.

In the end, the Jaguars could give Etienne a better contract than Jacobs or Barkley but getting $19 million per year may not be likely, even if he has a career season in 2024.

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