Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence: A Statistical Deep Dive ahead of the 2023 NFL season

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence made a huge jump in 2022. He finished the Regular Season with a 66.3 percent completion percentage, 4,113 yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Lawrence added five rushing touchdowns on 62 rushes.

Throughout the offseason, quarterback rankings have come out in droves, and except for the NFL Top 100, Lawrence has gotten his much-deserved praise but always finds himself in a tier below the NFL elite. Here are some statistical categories that helped propel Lawrence into superstar QB tier and some areas he can improve on to move even further up.

Where Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence Thrived in 2022

Interceptions

It all starts with the interceptions. Coming off 2021 with 17 interceptions (2.8 percent interception rate), this was by far the area Lawrence needed to improve upon most. And he did. His 1.37 percent interception rate (eight interceptions on 584 attempts) was the sixth-best rate in 2022 amongst quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts:

Passing Against Man Coverage

Trevor Lawrence’s .36 EPA per Pass Attempt (EPA/Att) in Man Coverage ranked No. 1 in 2022. In fact, the distance between him and Patrick Mahomes in second place (.28) was larger than the distance between Mahomes and Marcus Mariota in 6th (.21). Adding Ridley to the mix will only help.

This was a monstrous improvement from 2021 where Lawrence ranked 35th with a -.23 EPA/Att. The Jaguars saw man coverage on 24.0 percent of pass attempts in 2022, compared to a league average of 25.0. I would be shocked if that number does not decline significantly in 2023.

Avoiding Sacks

While Trevor Lawrence struggled passing under pressure in 2022, he was very good at avoiding sacks. With 27 sacks last year, the 4.62% sack rate was the 4th best amongst quarterbacks with 200+ pass attempts. However, some of these numbers can be influenced by an effective pass-blocking offensive line.

Looking at the number of sacks taken compared to the number of pressures will more effectively show how well the quarterback avoids sacks. Lawrence avoided sacks on 75.7 percent of pressures, the eighth-best in the league. This shows that he himself has been effective at avoiding sacks even when the pass protection does not hold up.

Where Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence Struggled in 2022

The Red Zone

I already wrote about this in my Macro and Micro Improvements article a couple weeks ago, so I will skip over this here, but this list would not be complete without at least mentioning it.

Passing Against Zone Coverage

While Lawrence did improve slightly from 2021’s -.07 EPA/Att (30th) up to .02 (20th) in 2022, there is still plenty of room for improvement. As mentioned above, I expect the Jaguars to face a higher-than-average zone coverage rate due to their proficiency against man coverage.

With more experience, you expect Lawrence to get better at reading zone coverage. However, play calling can also help improve this stat. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is notorious for making quarterback reads as easy as possible.

While there are also downsides to this approach (limited quarterback development), Brock Purdy and Jimmy Garoppolo ranked fourth and fifth in EPA/Att against zone coverage, respectively. Taking some influence from this offense, particularly in the red zone, may strongly benefit the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence.

Fumbles

Fumbles can be tricky because they often have a significant amount of “luck” involved. For example, of the 12 fumbles that Trevor Lawrence had in 2022, he lost nine of them. Conversely, Justin Fields fumbled 16 times and only lost two of them:

However, some of the fumbling is self-imposed. Lawrence's 12 fumbles were still significantly higher than expected given his 62 rushing attempts:

While Lawrence can’t control which fumbles end up in the defense's hands, he can still work on his ball control.

Deep Passing

In 2022, Lawrence ranked 22nd in Intended air yards per pass attempt (IAY/PA). While this stat in itself is not particularly concerning (Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert all ranked lower), the success rate on deep passes is concerning.

Lawrence’s .36 EPA/Att ranked 21st amongst qualifying quarterbacks in 2022. It is difficult to tell how much of this falls on Lawrence. Zay Jones and Evan Engram are certainly not deep threats.

In 2020, Calvin Ridley ranked first in Average Depth of Target (ADOT) amongst wide receivers with at least 90 targets with an average depth of 14.3 yards. Funny enough, DJ Chark was second at 14.0. Hopefully, Ridley can help Lawrence develop his deep passing game.

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