Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has a realistic shot at eclipsing 5k yards passing in 2023

Dec 18, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA;  Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16).
Dec 18, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16). / Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Trevor Lawrence made a leap in 2022 and should keep improving next season. How much better can get though? Can he be "throwing for more than 5,000 passing yards" better? Connor Orr of Sports Illustrated thinks so.

Orr recently put together a list of 100 predictions for the 2023 season and he envisions Lawrence eclipsing the 5,000-yard mark, pointing to his substantial growth last year and the head coach Doug Pederson's affinity to throw the ball as the two main reasons.

"Lawrence continues to "get it" at such a substantial speed, and, while the Jaguars' running game suffered a bit from some stretches of pedestrian play last year, it was all the more reason for Doug Pederson to seriously consider an offense that almost never takes the ball out of Lawrence's hands. Potentially generational QB, great wide receivers... what's so hard about that?"

Alex Kay of Bleacher Report, on the other hand, projects Lawrence to put up more conservative numbers next season. More specifically, he thinks the former Clemson Tiger will post a 65 percent completion rate and throw 4,061 yards with 28 touchdowns and nine picks.

While there's a 1,00-yard difference between Orr's and Kay's respective projections, the Jaguars gave their wide receiver corps a huge boost with the addition of Calvin Ridley, and that should help Lawrence have even better numbers than last year, when he completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 4,113 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight picks.

Among Orr's other predictions for the 2023 season, he sees wide receiver Christian Kirk catching more than 100 passes, which might be feasible when you take into account that reeled in 84 receptions for 1,1081 yards with eight touchdowns in his first campaign with the Jaguars. Entering his second year in Doug Pederson's system, he could be even better in 2023.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is in a position to throw for over 5,000 yards in 2023

Maybe Lawrence's 2023 number will fall somewhere between Orr's and Kay's predictions but he'll definitely have a chance to become the 10th quarterback to cross the 5,000-yard mark in league history. Patrick Mahomes was the latest to pull off the feat last year and he's done it twice since the Kansas City Chiefs drafted him 10th overall in 2017. While Lawrence isn't in the same echelon as him, he's in a favorable position to reach the milestone next season.

As Orr noted, Pederson has favored the pass throughout his career and the Jaguars have too many weapons not to use them in 2023. Also, running back Travis Etienne proved last year that he can carry a big workload, it's hard to see the coaching staff consistently building the game plan around him next season.

Also, Lawrence showed in 2022 that he can gain yards in chunks and deliver with the game on the line. If he works his magic, Pederson will lean on him heavily next season. Also, Calvin Ridley's ability to stretch the field will help pad Lawrence's stats.

Last but not least, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft improved immensely under Doug Pederson's tutelage despite the fact that he was learning his offense last season. With a better grasp of the system, he should have no trouble putting up better numbers in 2023.

In the end, the Jacksonville Jaguars won't care how many yards Lawrence gets as long as he helps them win games. Having said that, he gives them the best chance to rack up wins, so expect him to keep the ball in his hands more often than not.

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