Jaguars latest projected win totals still favor them to win the AFC South in 2023

The Jacksonville Jaguars got the third-best projected win totals in the NFL for the 2023 regular season.
Season ticket holder of 25 years, John Jackett (cq), holds up a Jacksonville Jaguars banner as he
Season ticket holder of 25 years, John Jackett (cq), holds up a Jacksonville Jaguars banner as he / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA

The Jacksonville Jaguars have put together a well-rounded team, which is why it wasn't surprising to see him get a projected win total of 10.5 for the 2023 season earlier this year. A more recent projection isn't as favorable but still has them racking up more victories than any other club in the AFC South.

Brad Gannon of Bleacher Report took a look at the over/under DrafkKings set for each NFL club ahead of the regular season and predicts whether they will hit the over or not. At 9.5, he doesn't think the Jaguars will.

Back in March, the Jaguars' over/under sat at 10.5, one more win. While the difference isn't much, it's still noticeable. It's possible that the projection was adjusted because of the upgrades their division foes made. But even then, the Houston Texans (6.5), the Indianapolis Colts (6.5) and the Tennessee Titans (7.5) still have a long way to go before they can catch up with Jacksonville, who firmly sits at the top of the AFC South and have a good chance at seizing its crown for the second straight year.

The Texans restocked their roster in the offseason and Indy will get several key contributors back. However, both clubs are slated to start rookie quarterbacks and might need a season to develop before either team becomes a legitimate threat to the Jaguars.

The same is true for Tennessee. General manager Ran Carthon bolstered most position groups on offense but it's hard to tell how much Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry football have left in them. Although they could show they can still play at a high level in 2023, there's an equal chance they'll slow down.

Heck, it wouldn't be particularly surprising to see the Titans roll with rookie signal-caller Will Levis if they think he's the long-term answer at the position. Regarding the Jags' projected win totals, here's what Gannon had to say, noting that injuries could make it harder for them to hit the over.

"The Jags picked up steam late in '22, and Trevor Lawrence has yet to reach his full potential. In a soft division, I'd expect them to post a winning record again. Still, the law of averages is not on their side when it comes to injury luck. Only the Steelers fared better in terms of adjusted games lost at Football Outsiders in 2022."

The Jaguars have enough depth to exceed their 2023 projected win totals

It's true that injuries are a curveball not all clubs are equipped to handle but the Jaguars have enough depth at most positions in case some of their best players go down and miss time in 2023. Sure, there's a steep dropoff from Trevor Lawrence to C.J. Beathard but their wide receiver corps is stacked with playmakers. The same is true for their running back group. Even if Travis Etienne had to sit a few (or many) games, rookie Tank Bigsby or D'Ernest Johnson could step in his place and the rushing attack may not miss a beat.

The same is true for the defense. The Jaguars invested several picks in this year's draft on that side of the ball. And while it wouldn't be optimal to thrust some of their young players into action before they might be ready to contribute, a couple injuries wouldn't probably be enough to slow Jacksonville down in 2023.

Of course, the Jaguars won't sustain many injuries in an ideal scenario and if they manage to stay relatively healthy during the 2023 season, they should then have no trouble exceeding their projected win total and keeping up with AFC powerhouses such as the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals.

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