No. 1 reason the Jaguars will win the AFC South: They have the depth to overcome injuries
The Jaguars have lots of star power at several position groups. Trevor Lawrence is an ascending quarterback and he'll have the chance to solidify himself as a top-5. At running back, Travis Etienne showed in 2022 that he can carry a big workload, totaling over 1,441 yards from scrimmage. Moreover, their wide receiver corps is one of the best in the league while their tight end room can rival some of the best in the league.
On defense, the Jaguars have several building blocks. Cornerback Tyson Campbell, safety Andre Cisco, defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton (when he comes back from a back injury), and bookend pass rushers Josh Allen and Travon Walker will play big roles next season.
Simply put, Jacksonville has enough talent to make a deep playoff run but if they were to miss a key starter on either side of the ball, they have have enough depth to overcome a few injuries in 2023. Nobody will deny there would be a steep dropoff from Lawrence to C.J. Beathard, the top backup at quarterback. However, Beathard could keep the team afloat in case Steezy Trev has to sit out a couple weeks.
Also, the Jags' depth at wide receiver is enviable. They kept seven wide receivers on their initial 53-man roster and signed a couple more to their practice squad. Their running back room is also full of talent, with rookie Tank Bigsby and D'Ernest Johnson expected to have significant roles in 2023. The tight end room isn't nearly as loaded but still has a couple options in case starter Evan Engram misses time.
On the defense, not having DaVon Hamilton early in the season will hurt but the Jaguars have a solid rotation up front to hold the fort during his absence. On the other hand, they have a solid mix of youth and veterans at middle linebacker, cornerback, and safety. While the team's brass still needs to round out their pass rush rotation, Walker and Allen should be able to get the job done if they manage to stay healthy.
Again, the Jaguars could use an extra pass rusher but even if nobody steps up (we're looking at you K'Lavon Chaisson and Yassir Abdullah), both the offense and defense are in good enough shape to win the AFC South in 2023.