Fantasy Friday: What to expect from Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence in 2023

This series of Friday blogs will detail what to expect and what Jacksonville Jaguars players, if any, to target in your Fantasy Football league.

It will be no surprise that the Jacksonville Jaguars offense has been receiving plenty of praise from the national media this offseason. And why shouldn’t they? The Jags went from worst in the league to winning the division, Trevor Lawrence took a big step forward in his first year with Doug Pederson, and the addition of Calvin Ridley should leave Jaguars fans excited for what the 2023 offense has in store.

But with expectations growing, the landscape for Jaguars fantasy football is changing. Keep in mind, all Average Draft Position (ADP) values come from nationwide sources. If you are in a league with other Jaguars fans, you may see their players get overdrafted due to fandom. I have done this plenty (thanks, DJ Chark) and, at the end of the day, fantasy football is meant to be fun, so draft players you want to root for.

General Fantasy Football Outlook for Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence in 2023

From 2021 to 2022, the Jaguars' offense went from scoring a league-low 14.9 Points per Game (PPG) to 23.8 PPG (10th). While many metrics and situations contribute to successful or unsuccessful fantasy football seasons, you generally want players on high-scoring teams.

For 2023, according to Sean Koerner’s projections, the Jaguars are expected to score 22.8 PPG which would place them 12th in the league. While this may come as a surprise to fans, Koerner heavily emphasizes regression to the mean. For all top-10 scoring teams in 2022, Koerner projects the Jaguars’ decline (1.0 PPG decrease) as the least significant. In general, I would expect similar overall success for Jaguar’s fantasy football players in 2023 that we saw last year.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence' Fantasy Production in 2023

2022 ADP – QB21 | 2022 Finish – QB7 | 2023 ADP – QB8

Lawrence significantly outperformed his QB21 ADP from 2022. Despite the early struggles, he and the offense snapped into gear in the second half of the year and recorded 18+ fantasy points in weeks 14-16, important for the fantasy football playoffs. His week 17 performance (4.5 fantasy points against the Texans) may have left a sour taste if someone started him in a championship last year and that may be pushing his price down.

With the additions of Calvin Ridley and Brenton Strange, the expectation is for the Jaguars to only increase their 57.1 percent pass rate (14th in the NFL) last year and that will only improve Lawrence's numbers.

If there is a reason for pessimism, the former Clemson Tiger was hyper-efficient on the ground, with only Jalen Hurtz outperforming TD expectations based on rushing attempts. Because a high portion of Lawrence's designed rushes come from short-yardage and goal-line situations, I am not overly concerned, but this is something to keep an eye on given the importance of rushing in fantasy football:

Overall, it is hard to see a major regression stats-wise from Lawrence this year. While his lack of rushing is certainly a downside, he seems a safe option as a top-12 QB. In fact, I see him as the last great option in that range (Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa are next in ADP) and am more than happy to draft him at his ADP. However, I would be cautious drafting the No. 1 overall pick in 2021 with the expectation of a top-3 season given that the Jaguars do still rely on a dynamic running game for success.

Projections: 375 completions, 4,050 Passing Yards, 28 Passing TDs, 70 Rushes, 320 Rushing Yards, 5 Rushing TDs – QB6

Recommendation: Yeah, why not?

Do you have any questions on the data or anything else you would like to see in these articles going forward? Post your comment below or feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @DuvalAndrew904. Otherwise, keep an eye out for next Friday’s breakdown of the running back room!

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