Things were still looking up for the Jacksonville Jaguars after a tough fought loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, but then in Week 3 we learned that there may be some very real problems for Doug Pederson’s team.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags fell to 1-2 with a 37-17 loss to Houston, so a loss to the 2-1 Atlanta Falcons this weekend would be a total disaster.
The Falcons picked up their first loss of the season on Sunday to the Detroit Lions 20-6 and their biggest problem is their quarterback. We’ll get into everything for this Week 4 matchup, but you can also check out every Week 4 matchup in BetSided NFL betting expert Iain MacMillan’s “Road to 272.”
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Now, here’s a look at the odds.
Falcons vs. Jaguars odds, spread and total
Jaguars vs. Falcons Betting Trends
- Jaguars are 1-2 ATS
- The OVER is 2-1 in Jaguars games
- Falcons are 1-2 ATS
- The UNDER is 2-1 in Falcons games
Falcons vs. Jaguars injury reports
Falcons injury report
- Troy Andersen - LB - Out indefinitely (shoulder)
- Cordarelle Patterson - RB - day-to-day (thigh)
Jaguars injury report
- Devin Lloyd - LB - day-to-day (hand)
- Leonard Taylor - TE - IR (undisclosed)
- Anton Harrison - OT - day-to-day (ankle)
- Zay Jones - WR - day-to-day (knee)
- Antonio Johnson - S - day-to-day (hamstring)
- Gregory Junior - CB - Out indefinitely (hamstring)
Falcons vs. Jaguars how to watch
- Date: Sunday, October 1
- Time: 9:30 PM EST
- Venue: Wembley Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
- Falcons Record: 2-1
- Jaguars Record: 1-2
Falcons vs. Jaguars key players to watch
Jessie Bates III, S: The Falcons loaded up on offense through the draft, but dipped into free agency to save their defense. So far, the signing of Bates has been the biggest. He is second on the team in tackles with 24 and has three interceptions and one forced fumble in three games.
Calvin Ridley, WR: In Week 1, Ridley had eight catches on 11 targets for 101 yards and a touchdown, but he’s cooled off considerably since. In Weeks 2 and 3 he had five total catches on 15 targets for 72 yards and no scores. The Jacksonville offense is still searching for its identity and balance.
Falcons vs. Jaguars prediction and pick
The Atlanta offense is loaded with talent at the skill positions, it just doesn't have a quarterback to get the playmakers on the team the ball.
This past week against Detroit, Desmond Ridder really got exposed. He went 21-for-38 for 201 yards, which isn’t bad, but Detroit was refusing to let Atlanta run the ball and once that went away, Ridder couldn’t lead them on scoring drives. The Falcons only gained 2.8 yards per play against a questionable Detroit defense. Ridder has only been good at home and London is a long way from Atlanta.
What’s an even bigger problem is that the Falcons were only able to rush for 44 yards with Bijan Robinson finishing with just 33 yards on 10 carries. It was only one game, but it does seem like teams are going to dare Ridder to beat them more and more and I’m not so sure he can. For the season, the Falcons are 26th in yards per play at 4.7 and 27th in yards per pass completion at 8.5, so even the passes Ridder does complete aren’t big plays.
The biggest advantage for the Jaguars, as is the case in most games, is their quarterback. Despite their 1-2 start, Trevor Lawrence has been good and still looks like an elite quarterback. The Jaguars are ninth in passing offense, but are only averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. They need to create more big plays in the passing game.
The Atlanta defense is sixth in yards per play and fourth in passing yards. Jessie Bates III has elevated the Falcons defensive secondary and they’re much improved, but they did allow a very efficient game to Jared Goff in Week 3. Before Goff, they faced Bryce Young and Jordan Love, so Lawrence will be the best QB they’ve faced and will lead Jacksonville back to .500.
The Jaguars are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games, though they have failed to cover their past two. I’ll take the Jags.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change