Does Trevor Lawrence deserve to be ranked in the top 10 among NFL QBs?

Entering his fourth NFL season, Trevor Lawrence has received a polarizing amount of assessments at this stage of his pro career. From a disastrous opening season, which many considered a write-off, to making the Pro Bowl in Year 2, and the disappointment of 2023, many are struggling to figure out just how good Lawrence truly is.

Doug Farrar of the Touchdown Wire recently assessed the top 36 pivots in the league today. I’ll look closer at his list and what Lawrence has brought to the table thus far in Duval County.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence’s career numbers so far

It feels like a long time ago, given everything he’s been through, but Lawrence was considered to be a generational talent heading into the 2021 NFL draft. 

Coming out of college, Lawrence was being compared to Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning for his poise and ability to drive the ball down the field with surgical precision and a cannon for an arm. Having never lost a regular season contest in college, Lawrence was seen as the answer to the Jags’ prayers.

Unfortunately, Urban Meyer's disastrous coaching display gave the native of Knoxville, Tennessee, a break amongst many critics in his rookie campaign. That season he completed 59.6 percent of his throws, with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

With former Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson at the controls in 2022, Lawrence took a significant leap, with a 66.3 completion percentage, throwing for 4,113 yards and 25 scores. In 2023, things regressed as the Jags missed the playoffs, though. Lawrence tossed 14 interceptions but threw over 20 touchdowns (21) for a second successive season.

Overall, Lawrence has thrown for 11,770 yards with 58 touchdowns and an overall rating of 85.0 since 2021.

Where does Lawrence rank among current NFL QBs?

Following a disappointing end to the 2023 campaign, Lawrence’s stock is not nearly as high among NFL pundits and fans as it was at the end of 2022.

Farrar, though, has him relatively high when considering the kind of seasons others at his position had in 2023.

The 24-year-old cracked Farrar’s top 10 QB list, squeezing in at No. 10 ahead of Dak Prescott.

Here’s Farrar’s rationale for having Lawrence so high on his list.

"Lawrence suffered a sprained ankle against the Bengals and wasn’t himself for the rest of the year. He threw 14 interceptions- seven of them came in the final four games of the year when he was beat up and dealing with injuries. I’m looking forward to seeing him shut up a lot of naysayers this season."

Before Lawrence dealt with injuries, the Jags were in a position to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC. It's easy to see them competing in 2024 if Lawrence stays healthy.

Notable quarterbacks below Trevor Lawrence

There were a few notable pivots that Farrar considered inferior to Lawrence. For starters, it’s clear some spots in the ranking had nothing to do with last season. However, there were others whom it was unclear whether or not Farrar based it on their entire NFL careers or just the 2023 campaign.

Dak Prescott’s ranking below Lawrence based on last season may be surprising to some, as he led the league in touchdown passes (36), but he and the Cowboys laid a gigantic egg in the playoffs.

Lawrence was also seeded ahead of 2022 NFL MVP finalist Jalen Hurts, who struggled down the stretch of last season, and Brock Purdy, who led the Niners to a Super Bowl appearance in 2023. Lawrence was also ranked higher than another former No. 1 pick, pivot Jared Goff.

Goff threw for the second-most passing yards (4,575) last season, had a 97.9 passer rating, and completed 67.3 percent of his throws, nearly guiding the Lions to a first-ever Super Bowl appearance.

Notable quarterbacks above Trevor Lawrence

It’s hard to argue with most of the names above Lawrence on this top 10 list. Lamar Jackson was head and shoulders the best in the regular season, Patrick Mahomes showed why he’s arguably the future G.O.A.T., C.J. Stroud showed in his rookie season that he’s ready for prime time, and Josh Allen came on strong down the stretch.

Overall, it’s hard to argue with Aaron Rodgers or Joe Burrow ahead of Lawrence, given everything they've achieved. Obviously, having them ahead of him was not based on last season but on their overall body of work.

Jordan Love came in at No. 8, and of the top 10, he’s the closest to Lawrence based on 2023. The Packers QB was sizzling down the stretch of last season but, in the regular season, threw for slightly more yards passing than Lawrence (4,159), averaging 7.2 yards per pass, while Lawrence was at 7.1.

On the other hand, Love had a 64.2 completion percentage, slightly below Lawrence’s mark (65.6).

While this is just one person’s opinion, it shows us two things, 1. There are still critics out there who are high on Lawrence and 2. Lawrence has plenty of incentive to prove those who no longer believe he’s a generational talent wrong.

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