The Jacksonville Jaguars would be justified in dismissing Doug Pederson if they wanted to. After all, they're currently 2-7 and have won just three of their last 16 games dating back to Week 13 of the 2023 season. When you take into account that there seems to be a disconnect between Pederson and the locker room, it would make sense for the Jags to move on from him. However, there may be one reason the organization may have chosen not to pull the trigger.
You would think that the case to fire Pederson is strong enough following the loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Yet, Jacksonville hasn't probably fired him because they still have a legitimate, albeit slim, chance to make the playoffs and even win the AFC South heading into Week 11. Granted, it has more to do with 6the current state of the division rather than the head coach's football acumen.
The Houston Texans currently lead the AFC South but have lost three of their last four games. While the Jags are four games behind, they could still finish 9-7 if they run the table. Is it farfetched? You bet, but they've lost several one-close games this year, and Pederson already overcame a 3-7 start to make the playoffs in 2022. Perhaps that's why owner Shad Khan is confident he can steer the ship in the right direction.
Having said that, Pederson's seat should currently be hot, and anything short of an AFC Championship should be a cause for dismissal. But if he falters, the Jaguars may choose to hold on to him for the remainder of the season, as there may not be much of a benefit from giving him his walking papers other than potentially getting a head start in the search for his replacement.
But once the offseason starts, the organization must fire Pederson (and general manager Trent Baalke) precisely because they built a roster good enough to compete but have failed to live up to expectations.
Why the Jaguars must kick Doug Pederson to the curb:
Doug Pederson did a great job rebuilding the team after the Urban Meyer debacle, taking them from worst to first in the AFC South in 2022. On top of that, Trevor Lawrence took a significant step forward after struggling as a rookie. So following a comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers and a close loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs, the future looked bright.
Unfortunately, Jacksonville has fallen off a cliff and the head coach deserves to shoulder plenty of the blame the past two seasons. Last year, the Jags seemed to be on the way to the playoffs after going 8-3 to start the season. However, they faded down the stretch and managed to win just one of their last five games.
Realizing he needed to make changes or else he would get the same results, Pederson revamped his coaching staff, dismissing defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and bringing in Ryan Nielsen to take his place. So far, the results aren't the ones he expected.
Compounding the issue is that his relationship with Trevor Lawrence seems to have soured as of late, and there were even reports that he had lost the locker room following the loss to the Houston Texans in Week 4. Although Pederson was quick to shut down the speculation, the team has looked uninspired and unprepared. Since he's responsible for putting players in a position to succeed, you could make the case that Jacksonville's current record is the result of the work he's put in, and it doesn't look good.
The bottom line is that Pederson has had ample time to turn things around but hasn't. There's still a slim chance he'll pull it off. Conversely, the expectation that the Jaguars will fire him will grow with every loss.