The Jacksonville Jaguars appear to be fully behind Trevor Lawrence, at least from an outside perspective. However, questions about his future beyond 2025 haven't stopped. One big reason is that he's made strides but has yet to play at a top-10 level.
Now, Lawrence has time left in the season to keep improving, and it's hard to picture the Jags moving on from him. But if they consider doing it, taking a look at how the Minnesota Vikings handled their quarterback situation may give them pause. H/T to Twitter user @J_Collyay for bringing up the issue.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence could enjoy a career surge like Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold went third overall to the New York Jets in 2018. He flamed out and was gone after just three seasons. The former USC Trojan then spent two years with the Carolina Panthers and signed with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023. At this point of his career, he was seen as nothing more than a journeyman. But then, something changed.
The Vikings signed Darnold to back up rookie J.J. McCarthy. The expectation was that he was going to serve as a mentor and play a game or two if needed. However, things came to a screeching halt when McCarthy suffered a season-ending meniscus injury. Minnesota could've pressed the panic button but instead plugged Darnold behind center, and he delivered.
The former Jets bust came through and turned the Vikes into a playoff contender. They ultimately fell to the Los Angeles Rams in the postseason, but the biggest storyline was that Darnold could be a high-end starting quarterback.
Common sense dictated that the Vikings re-sign Darnold, even though he would now demand starting-quarterback money. However, they were confident that McCarthy was going to bounce back from injury and play at a high level. The Vikes likely took this route because they had already used a first-round selection on the former Michigan Wolverine and wanted their investment to pay off. It hasn't.
McCarthy has been one of the most underwhelming quarterbacks this season. JP Acosta of CBS Sports does an excellent job of breaking down his struggles. Basically, it comes down to inaccuracy, and the root is poor mechanics.
The sophomore quarterback could turn out to be fine down the road, but he's quickly proving that moving on from a dependable quarterback and finding an immediate replacement isn't nearly as easy as it seems.
The Jaguars can't give up on Trevor Lawrence just yet
If the Jaguars traded Trevor Lawrence in 2026, his departure would leave $50 million in dead money, or $16 million next year and spread $34 million to 2027 if they did it after June 1. Either way, it would leave Jacksonville with severe cap constraints. Granted, general manager James Gladstone hasn't been afraid to cut ties with underwhelming players in the past. However, Trevor Lawrence doesn't appear to be in hot water, and the Jags are projected to deal with a cap crunch in 2026.
But for the sake of the argument, let's say the Jaguars did move on from Lawrence. The question becomes, who do they replace him with? The 2026 quarterback class isn't particularly enticing. Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson might be the only prospects who go in the first round next year. The free agent market won't be any better. Mac Jones may be the best option available.
Of course, it's not a given that Jacksonville will move on from Lawrence. Heck, he's coming off one of his cleanest games in 2025 and has a chance to keep improving.
Maybe by the end of the season, Trevor Lawrence will be playing so well that he'll have dispelled questions about his future in Jacksonville. But even if he hasn't, the Jaguars should think twice before giving up on him.