![Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) gives a thumbs up before an NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,x_0,y_53,w_6000,h_3375/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/55/01jr8cjtn6z9exjnaz6z.jpg "Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) gives a thumbs up before an NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]")
The Jacksonville Jaguars cleaned house after failing to make the playoffs two years in a row. Once they found a new head coach and a general manager, they proceeded to revamp the roster. It's fair to say that the Jags look in much better shape than they did at the end of the 2024 season. That said, all the changes they made may not lead to a significant uptick in wins.
DraftKings updated its win totals after free agency and has Jacksonville at 7.5. That would be an improvement of three or four games after going 4-17.
The Indianapolis Colts also sit at 7.5, while the Tennessee Titans are projected to win 5.5 games. The Houston Texans lead the AFC South at 9.5. They won 10 games last year, so it seems like they're expected to be stuck in neutral.
Why the Jaguars' win total for 2025 is relatively low
Hiring a new head coach and general manager comes with a certain degree of uncertainty. The Jacksonville Jaguars hired Liam Coen to fill the vacancy left by Doug Pederson's dismissal, in part because of the success he had as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offensive coordinator last year.
With Coen at the helm, quarterback Baker Mayfield posted career numbers, and the Tampa Bay running game went from one of the worst in the league to one of the top 5. He's expected to have a similar impact for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense.
On the other hand, Jacksonville hired James Gladstone as their general manager to replace the embattled Trent Baalke. As an executive with the Los Angeles Rams, Gladstone was highly involved with their personnel decisions and helped acquire several building blocks. However, there's a difference between being a strong voice in a front office and leading one.
This is a long-winded way to say that both Coen and Gladstone come with promising credentials but have yet to accomplish anything at their respective positions. That may be the reason the Jags aren't projected to make a massive leap in 2025. Then again, there's a reason to believe they could exceed expectations.
Why the Jaguars can win more than 8 games in 2025
The Jacksonville Jaguars moved on from Doug Pederson because he was no longer able to get the most out of his players. As pivotal as he was in the 2022 turnaround, he held the team back. That was reflected in the poor grades he got in the NFLPA survey.
With Coen in the fold, Trevor Lawrence should be able to bounce back. The two already got to work this offseason despite the fact that he's still recovering from labrum surgery. That said, No. 16 is just one of many offensive players who'll benefit from a fresh start. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby should see a boost in production under the team's renewed emphasis to establish the run.
Similarly, Coen should find more favorable matchups for Brian Thomas Jr., who'll see fewer double teams if opposing defenses need to bring more players to the box to stop the run. Lawrence should also connect deep with Thomas more often behind an improved offensive line.
Of course, the defense also got a clean slate with Anthony Campanile at the helm. His predecessor, Ryan Nielsen, rubbed players the wrong way because of his arrogant demeanor. Campanile will be a breath of fresh air.
Couple that with the fact that the Houston Texans and the rest of the AFC South appear to be vulnerable, and it's easy to see the Jacksonville Jaguars making a leap. Sure, they still have a long way to go to become a perennial contender, but winning more than eight games in 2025 is realistic.