Going into this season, the Jacksonville Jaguars opted not to extend starting running back Travis Etienne. Then, after just one week, they traded Tank Bigsby to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Etienne truthers rejoiced.
Make what you want of all that, but I still don't think Etienne is here to stay. In fact, Jacksonville may have found its more reliable version of Etienne in rookie fourth-round pick Bhayshul Tuten.
Now, what I'm about to get into is a double-edged sword. But, hear me out.
The Jaguars' first two opponents have been a couple of awful defenses. So, for Etienne to come out and have such a productive pair of games is unsurprising. By that same token, Tuten has looked good in his limited opportunities, especially last week against Cincinnati.
The arrow is still pointing down for Travis Etienne, all things considered
If we look at the past couple of years, we'll notice Etienne has been a sub-4.0 yards-per-carry running back. Maybe, that's just who he is. Perhaps it's the fact that he's in a contract year, and the Jaguars continuing to draft running backs is fueling this hot start.
Meanwhile, what Tuten showed throughout summer practices and training camp is exactly why fans were intrigued about the pick from the jump. His explosiveness is there. He's looked like the best player on the field, at times, during a handful of practices.
Here is the kicker of all stats, through just two weeks, and in a small sample size: Tuten has a rush success rate of 81.8 percent while Etienne is at 50 percent. Rush success rate, as defined by Pro Football Reference, means gaining at least 40 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent of yards needed on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.
Again, this is limited evidence, but Tuten is lightyears ahead.
It's no surprise to see the fantasy football community so high on Tuten, too, especially after his touchdown last week against Cincinnati. The Jaguars are not committed to Etienne whatsoever. That's a fact.
Tuten is in the first year of his deal. He's a rookie. He isn't going anywhere. If I am Liam Coen, I'm going to continue to give Etienne his touches so long as the production is there. However, we are already seeing a potential changing of the guard with Tuten. The hype is no longer just hype. He showed last week that he can play.
If the rookie continues to take full advantage of his touches, then Etienne may be soon phased out in preparation for Tuten to take control in his second year.