The Jacksonville Jaguars have been on both the right and wrong sides of history when it comes to worst-to-first stories in the AFC South in recent years.
The 2021 season was nothing shy of a disappointment after the team selected Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick in that year’s draft, but looking back, it’s not hard to see that a lot of that probably came down to the unmitigated disaster that was the Urban Meyer era.
In year number two, Lawrence led a team that had amassed just 15 victories over the four previous seasons to a playoff berth, their first AFC South division title since 2017, and a historic come-from-behind playoff win.
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Then came the 2023 season
The Jaguars were sitting in the AFC’s provisional No. 1 seed at 8-3 heading into Week 13 before a downward spiral resulted in a 9-8 finish, a missed playoff berth, and the Houston Texans being crowned AFC South champions for the first time since 2019.
And much like the Jaguars, the Texans did it with a highly regarded young quarterback in C.J. Stroud, whom they selected with the No. 2 overall pick in that year’s draft. They, too, went from last place to first place in the AFC South.
The Texans had won just 11 games in three seasons entering the 2023 season, but they were able to match that total with a 10-win regular season and a playoff win in Stroud’s rookie season. They repeated as AFC South winners this past season and also won 10 regular-season games and a playoff game.
Now the Jaguars could be at risk of watching something very similar unfold with another one of their division rivals.
After a 3-14 season in 2024, the Tennessee Titans are lined up to pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft, and they will presumably be taking the man whom they believe can be their quarterback of the future.
Miami’s Cam Ward, a five-year college starter, is the odds-on favorite to head to Nashville in a few weeks, and while he may have been considered the seventh-best quarterback in the 2024 class, his selection should not be taken lightly.
First and foremost, ranking seventh in last year’s class is far from a knock, given who those other six quarterbacks are. And secondly, we have seen, time and time again, what having a quality quarterback can do for a team, even when the rest of a roster is considered relatively flawed.
The Jaguars did it in 2022, the Texans did it in 2023, and there are a number of other recent examples as well. Look at what the “lowly” Washington Commanders did in year number one with Jayden Daniels as their signal caller, winning 14 games and advancing all the way to the NFC Championship Game.
Why the Jaguars should not take Cam Ward lightly
The Titans have pieces in place to make things happen if Cam Ward turns out to be the right guy to lead the offense, and they are in the right division to do it.
Those pieces include 1,000-yard running back Tony Pollard, 1,000-yard wide receiver Calvin Ridley, and emerging star tight end Chig Okonkwo, but perhaps the best way to illustrate the Titans’ potential is what they have in their second-year head coach.
Brian Callahan led his own worst-to-first turnaround as the offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals, and his didn’t stop with an AFC North division title or even a playoff win. In the team’s first full season with former No. 1 pick Joe Burrow as their starting quarterback, they went all the way to the Super Bowl.
Is Cam Ward set up for instant success?
I’m not saying that Jaguars fans should fear the Titans as Super Bowl threats in 2025, but if they hit the bullseye with Cam Ward, perhaps they will finally need to be taken seriously again.
Additionally, the AFC South has traditionally been one of the weakest divisions, if not the overall weakest division, in the NFL, with its champion having earned the No. 4 seed in five of the six most recent postseasons, including three in a row.
And while every other AFC division has had a team represented in the Super Bowl at least once since 2018, the AFC South is still seeking its first since 2009. Additionally, the other three AFC divisions have all seen multiple AFC Championship Game berths since 2020, while the AFC South hasn’t seen any since 2019.
Now, perhaps the Jaguars, after their own worst-to-first turnaround, will have to witness a second division rival accomplish the feat in three years.