The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South title and made the playoffs in 2025. While they should feel good about their chances of repeating as division champions next season, it won't be a walk in the park.
After all, the Houston Texans remain a threat, and the Tennessee Titans could give the Jags fit now that Robert Saleh is the head coach. The Indianapolis Colts are also around. Then again, they didn't show enough last year to make you think that they could seize the AFC South next season. That's why ESPN's latest prediction doesn't make sense.
The Colts are predicted to dethrone the Jaguars as the AFC South champs
Jeremy Fowler of ESPN put together a list of predictions for 2026 and envisions the Colts winning the AFC South, arguing that they got off to a strong start last year before injuries derailed their season.
"The Colts appeared poised for a breakthrough with the 8-2 start to 2025 before injuries derailed the season and prompted Indy to call 44-year-old Phillip Rivers off the couch to quarterback the team," Fowler wrote.
Fowler goes on to cite an AFC exec who believes Indy was trending in the right direction last year and is closer than people think.
On paper, Fowler makes compelling points. It's true that the Colts were off to a strong start. Similarly, injuries held them back. That said, the best teams can withstand injuries. The Jaguars did precisely that when they lost two-way star Travis Hunter, safety Eric Murray, tight end Brenton Strange, wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., and cornerback Jourdan Lewis at different points of the year. Still, they went on to win 13 games.
You could argue that Indianapolis' case was different since they lost Daniel Jones, their starting quarterback. But the fact that they had to get Philip Rivers off the couch only proves their lack of foresight and preparedness. If they had had a competent backup in place, the Colts would have managed to get to the finish line. Instead, they lost seven games in a row to end the year. Good teams don't endure a full collapse.
Without Daniel Jones, the Colts aren't a threat to the Jaguars
The Jaguars showed in 2025 that NFL clubs can leave the cellar and get to the top in just one year. On the other hand, there's not much that the Colts have done to inspire confidence next season. Head coach Shane Steichen returned, and so did general manager Chris Ballard. Both are responsible for Indy's failure to make the playoffs since 2020.
Compounding the issue is that Daniel Jones is scheduled to hit the open market. Even if he returns to Indianapolis, he may not be ready for the season opener after tearing his Achilles. In fact, there's a chance he won't return (and be at full strength) until the end of the year. Barring an Anthony Richardson surge, it's simply hard to picture the Colts turning into an AFC powerhouse.
Sure, running back Jonathan Taylor is back, and he was one of the most dominant players in the NFL last year. But even without him, Indianapolis wasn't able to win games once Jones went down.
When you add it all up, the idea of the Colts taking over the AFC South in 2026 is ridiculous. Can it happen? You bet, but don't count on it. Instead, expect the Jaguars to solidify their stronghold of the division.